Stock fact sheet · data as of
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGD): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · High Yield Income
Is AFGD undervalued?
At 21.55 (close of 16 Oct 2026), AFGD trades 83% below the GLS average fair value of 123.60. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 6 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns American Financial Group, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 12.00 while 10 Cap gives 363.45. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files AFGD under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for AFGD
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 341.66 | +1485% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 122.50 | +468% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 41.47 | +92% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 13.99 | -35% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 12.00 | -44% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 363.45 | +1587% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 93.88 | +336% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 104.62 | +385% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 18.87 | -12% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -190.98 | -986% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - AFGD passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.1 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.7%, ROE 17.5%, ROA 2.6% - with debt at 0.38 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 11.8%.
The dividend yield is high at 4.88% (payout ratio 60%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Property and Casualty Insurance 95%, Corporate and Other 5% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 12.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.1 / 10 | ROE | 17.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.38 | ROA | 2.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 11.8% | Payout ratio | 60% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 39: No options
AFGD has no listed options in the nightly snapshot, so there is nothing to sell and the stock cannot be wheeled however good the business; the Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options" (39 here). The valuation and quality numbers still apply to owning the shares outright.
Volume runs at 45k shares a day on a market cap of $1.8B, with a beta of 0.69 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 9 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 83% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.1/10 | |
| Premium | 0 / 20 | no option data | |
| Stability | 9 / 20 | 45k shares/day, $1.8B cap, beta 0.69 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to American Financial Group, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFGB American Financial Group, Inc. | 21.70 | 123.75 | +82% | 39No options | $1.8B |
| HMN Horace Mann Educators Corporation | 45.98 | 154.93 | +70% | 83Prime | $1.9B |
| PRCH Porch Group, Inc. | 16.44 | 18.12 | +9% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
| KMPR Kemper Corporation | 28.42 | 89.68 | +68% | 45Weak | $1.7B |
| KMPB Kemper Corporation 5.875% Fixed | 24.76 | 90.04 | +73% | 39No options | $1.7B |
| STC Stewart Information Services Corporation | 50.84 | 67.19 | +24% | 75Good | $1.6B |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group, Inc. | 103.94 | 196.31 | +47% | 72Good | $1.5B |
| AFGC American Financial Group, Inc. | 18.09 | 120.23 | +85% | 39No options | $1.5B |
| UFCS United Fire Group, Inc. | 55.48 | 141.85 | +61% | 75Good | $1.4B |
| AFGE American Financial Group, Inc. | 16.16 | 118.35 | +86% | 39No options | $1.3B |
| HCI HCI Group, Inc. | 196.38 | 592.11 | +67% | 79Good | $2.4B |
| UVE Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. | 46.70 | 199.23 | +77% | 83Prime | $1.3B |
⚖ Compare AFGD with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AFGD
Is AFGD undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 21.55 the stock is 83% below the average fair value of 123.60 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of AFGD and what does it mean?
AFGD has no listed options in our nightly snapshot, so it cannot be wheeled; its Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options".
What is the GLS fair value for AFGD?
123.60 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does American Financial Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AFGD have listed options, and how liquid are they?
No. The nightly options snapshot found no listed contracts on AFGD, so the wheel strategy cannot be run on it and the Wheel Score is capped at 39.