American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGD): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is AFGD undervalued?

At 20.74 (close of 5 Nov 2026), AFGD trades 84% below the GLS average fair value of 125.79. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 6 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns American Financial Group, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.

The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 11.45 while DCF gives 365.72. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

Ranked against every other company we cover, AFGD is clearly cheaper than it is fast-growing, so the nightly engine files it under Value (value score 61, growth score 28, out of 100). It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).

Nine valuation models for AFGD

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is average - AFGD passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 7.3 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.

Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.7%, ROE 17.5%, ROA 2.6% - with debt at 0.38 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 11.2%.

The dividend yield is high at 4.59% (payout ratio 56%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Property and Casualty Insurance 95%, Corporate and Other 5% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 35: No options

AFGD has no listed options in the nightly snapshot, so there is nothing to sell and the stock cannot be wheeled however good the business. It fails the first Wheel Trade Filter (options that actually trade), so the score stays under 70 and is shown as "No options" (35 here). The valuation and quality numbers still apply to owning the shares outright.

Volume runs at 7k shares a day on a market cap of $1.7B, with a beta of 0.69 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

No upcoming earnings date is recorded for AFGD in the nightly calendar. The shares go ex-dividend on 13 Nov 2026 (0.3516 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty

The 12 companies below are the closest to American Financial Group, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

⚖ Compare AFGD with 7 of them   All Financial Services stocks →