Stock fact sheet · data as of
International Paper Company (IP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Paper, Lumber & Forest Products · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is IP undervalued?
International Paper Company (IP) closed at 34.09 on 16 Oct 2026, 45% above the GLS average fair value of 23.45. 3 of the 3 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The average is built from just 3 models (DCF, 10 Cap, DDM) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files IP under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for IP
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 25.83 | -24% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 17.31 | -49% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 27.22 | -20% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -24.61 | -172% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 48.43 | +42% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
International Paper Company scores only 3 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 1.7/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -13.7%, ROE -23.7%, ROA -9.3% - with debt at 0.73 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.7%.
The dividend yield is high at 5.43% (payout ratio -28%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Packaging Solutions North America 63%, Packaging Solutions EMEA 26%, Global Cellulose Fibers 11% (quarter Q1 FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 6/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | -13.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.7 / 10 | ROE | -23.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.73 | ROA | -9.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.7% | Payout ratio | -28% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 6 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 45 International Paper Company sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 7/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 48% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 65,036 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 9.0M shares a day on a market cap of $18.1B, with a beta of 0.89; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -45% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 1.7/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 48% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 9.0M shares/day, $18.1B cap, beta 0.89 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
International Paper Company reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk. The next ex-dividend date is 16 Nov 2026 (0.4625 per share).
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
The 12 companies below are the closest to International Paper Company by market cap within the Paper, Lumber & Forest Products industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INPAP International Paper Company PFD $4 | 72.00 | 26.52 | -171% | 23No options | $24.0B |
| SUZ Suzano S.A. | 8.56 | 47.28 | +82% | 82Prime | $10.6B |
| WFG West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. | 63.92 | 37.59 | -70% | 41Weak | $4.9B |
| LPX Louisiana-Pacific Corporation | 69.39 | 21.35 | -225% | 51Fair | $4.9B |
| UFPI UFP Industries, Inc. | 75.75 | 85.13 | +11% | 71Good | $4.2B |
| BCC Boise Cascade Company | 75.48 | 74.85 | -1% | 64Fair | $2.6B |
| SLVM Sylvamo Corp | 32.11 | 71.31 | +55% | 74Good | $1.3B |
| CLW Clearwater Paper Corporation | 19.30 | 52.96 | +64% | 45Weak | $311M |
| KEWL Keweenaw Land Association, Limited | 75.00 | 0.7775 | -9546% | 24No options | $84M |
| MERC Mercer International Inc. | 0.2004 | - | - | 41Weak | $13M |
| JCTC Jewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd. | 2.92 | 6.51 | +55% | 39No options | $10M |
| NWGL CL Workshop Group Limited | 0.2210 | 0.7237 | +69% | 39No options | $4M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about IP
Is IP undervalued right now?
No: at 34.09 the stock trades 45% above the GLS average fair value of 23.45 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of IP and what does it mean?
IP scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for IP?
23.45 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 3 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does International Paper Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does IP have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 658 listed contracts with 65,036 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 48% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.