Stock fact sheet · data as of
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol WFG · Basic Materials · Paper, Lumber & Forest Products · Canada · Speculative
Is WFG undervalued?
At 69.74 (close of 5 Nov 2026), WFG trades 79% over the GLS average fair value of 39.04, with 0 of 2 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files WFG under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for WFG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 59.24 | -15% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 18.83 | -73% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -5.02 | -107% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 80.00 | +15% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: WFG passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is 5.1 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -15.4%, ROE -16.3%, ROA -12.5% - with debt at 0.06 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 1.84% at a payout ratio of -7%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold.
Institutional ownership scores 6/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | -15.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.1 / 10 | ROE | -16.3% |
| Debt / equity | 0.06 | ROA | -12.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -8.3% | Payout ratio | -7% |
| Institutions | 6 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 26: Weak
WFG scores 26 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (852 open interest, 344 a day); and filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 79% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 3/9 (under 6); and filter 5, can repay its debt - 3.1 years to repay its debt (over 3); and filter 6, no serious red flags - Red Flags score 45 (under 60), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium strong, moat fair, health weak, red flags weak, option trading weak, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 34% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. Chain open interest is thin - 852 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 257k shares a day on a market cap of $5.3B, with a beta of 1.14; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (852 open interest, 344 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 79% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 3/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 3.1 years to repay its debt (over 3) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Fails | Red Flags score 45 (under 60) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 79% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 34% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 5.1/10 | |
| Health | Weak | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 45/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 344 contracts a day, 852 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 1.14, $5.3B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for WFG in the nightly calendar.
Analysts upgraded WFG 1 time in the last 30 days with no downgrades; the latest action was an upgrade by Cantor Fitzgerald on 29 Oct 2026.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
The 12 companies below are the closest to West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. by market cap within the Paper, Lumber & Forest Products industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LPX Louisiana-Pacific Corporation | 78.82 | 23.54 | -235% | 32Weak | $5.5B |
| UFPI UFP Industries, Inc. | 86.31 | 73.00 | -18% | 33Weak | $4.8B |
| BCC Boise Cascade Company | 77.98 | 84.15 | +7% | 71Good | $2.7B |
| SUZ Suzano S.A. | 9.56 | 20.78 | +54% | 48Weak | $11.8B |
| IP International Paper Company | 35.65 | 22.28 | -60% | 36Weak | $18.9B |
| SLVM Sylvamo Corp | 33.60 | 71.59 | +53% | 44Weak | $1.3B |
| INPAP International Paper Company PFD $4 | 72.00 | 26.37 | -173% | 15No options | $24.0B |
| CLW Clearwater Paper Corporation | 14.05 | 22.61 | +38% | 43Weak | $227M |
| KEWL Keweenaw Land Association, Limited | 69.00 | 0.7775 | -8774% | 15No options | $78M |
| MERC Mercer International Inc. | 0.2500 | 2.20 | +89% | 28Weak | $17M |
| JCTC Jewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd. | 2.87 | 6.64 | +57% | 31No options | $10M |
| ITP IT Tech Packaging, Inc. | 0.1260 | 5.82 | +98% | 29Weak | $2M |
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about WFG
Is WFG undervalued right now?
No: at 69.74 the stock trades 79% above the GLS average fair value of 39.04 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of WFG and what does it mean?
WFG scores 26 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for WFG?
39.04 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for WFG in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does WFG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 66 listed contracts with 852 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 34% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.