Stock fact sheet · data as of
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Paper, Lumber & Forest Products · Canada · Speculative / Distressed
Is WFG undervalued?
At 63.92 (close of 16 Oct 2026), WFG trades 70% over the GLS average fair value of 37.59, with 0 of 2 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files WFG under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for WFG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 56.67 | -11% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 18.50 | -71% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -5.02 | -108% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 84.00 | +31% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: WFG passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.6 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -15.4%, ROE -16.3%, ROA -12.5% - with debt at 0.06 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 1.96% at a payout ratio of -7%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold.
Institutional ownership scores 6/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | -15.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.6 / 10 | ROE | -16.3% |
| Debt / equity | 0.06 | ROA | -12.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -10.1% | Payout ratio | -7% |
| Institutions | 6 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 41: Weak
WFG scores 41 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 0/25, Health 7/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 12/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 43% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 473 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 139k shares a day on a market cap of $4.9B, with a beta of 1.12; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 12 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -70% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 2 / 15 | moat 1.6/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 43% | |
| Stability | 12 / 20 | 139k shares/day, $4.9B cap, beta 1.12 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
The 12 companies below are the closest to West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. by market cap within the Paper, Lumber & Forest Products industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LPX Louisiana-Pacific Corporation | 69.39 | 21.35 | -225% | 51Fair | $4.9B |
| UFPI UFP Industries, Inc. | 75.75 | 85.13 | +11% | 71Good | $4.2B |
| BCC Boise Cascade Company | 75.48 | 74.85 | -1% | 64Fair | $2.6B |
| SUZ Suzano S.A. | 8.56 | 47.28 | +82% | 82Prime | $10.6B |
| IP International Paper Company | 34.09 | 23.45 | -45% | 45Weak | $18.1B |
| SLVM Sylvamo Corp | 32.11 | 71.31 | +55% | 74Good | $1.3B |
| INPAP International Paper Company PFD $4 | 72.00 | 26.52 | -171% | 23No options | $24.0B |
| CLW Clearwater Paper Corporation | 19.30 | 52.96 | +64% | 45Weak | $311M |
| KEWL Keweenaw Land Association, Limited | 75.00 | 0.7775 | -9546% | 24No options | $84M |
| MERC Mercer International Inc. | 0.2004 | - | - | 41Weak | $13M |
| JCTC Jewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd. | 2.92 | 6.51 | +55% | 39No options | $10M |
| NWGL CL Workshop Group Limited | 0.2210 | 0.7237 | +69% | 39No options | $4M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about WFG
Is WFG undervalued right now?
No: at 63.92 the stock trades 70% above the GLS average fair value of 37.59 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of WFG and what does it mean?
WFG scores 41 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for WFG?
37.59 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does WFG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 178 listed contracts with 473 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 43% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.