Stock fact sheet · data as of
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol LPX · Basic Materials · Paper, Lumber & Forest Products · United States · Blend
Is LPX undervalued?
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) closed at 78.82 on 5 Nov 2026, 235% above the GLS average fair value of 23.54. 9 of the 9 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 2.90 while Graham Growth gives 55.57. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for LPX, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 17, growth score 18, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for LPX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 32.73 | -58% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 23.31 | -70% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 55.57 | -30% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 24.29 | -69% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 2.90 | -96% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 36.37 | -54% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 8.51 | -89% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 17.36 | -78% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 10.79 | -86% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -1.22 | -102% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 91.00 | +15% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: LPX passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is 5.9 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.8%, ROE 8.4%, ROA 5.6% - with debt at 0.23 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 0.6%.
The dividend yield is 1.50% with a payout ratio of 122% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Siding 71%, OSB 29% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 9/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 20 Aug 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 6.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.9 / 10 | ROE | 8.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.23 | ROA | 5.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.6% | Payout ratio | 122% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 9 / 10 |
Wheel Score 32: Weak
LPX scores 32 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 3, below fair value - trades 235% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 4/9 (under 6), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium strong, moat fair, health fair, red flags good, option trading weak, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 41% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 2,652 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.9M shares a day on a market cap of $5.5B, with a beta of 1.67 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 235% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 4/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 235% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 41% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 5.9/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 80/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 326 contracts a day, 2,652 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 1.67, $5.5B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for LPX in the nightly calendar.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
The 12 companies below are the closest to Louisiana-Pacific Corporation by market cap within the Paper, Lumber & Forest Products industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WFG West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. | 69.74 | 39.04 | -79% | 26Weak | $5.3B |
| UFPI UFP Industries, Inc. | 86.31 | 73.00 | -18% | 33Weak | $4.8B |
| BCC Boise Cascade Company | 77.98 | 84.15 | +7% | 71Good | $2.7B |
| SUZ Suzano S.A. | 9.56 | 20.78 | +54% | 48Weak | $11.8B |
| IP International Paper Company | 35.65 | 22.28 | -60% | 36Weak | $18.9B |
| SLVM Sylvamo Corp | 33.60 | 71.59 | +53% | 44Weak | $1.3B |
| INPAP International Paper Company PFD $4 | 72.00 | 26.37 | -173% | 15No options | $24.0B |
| CLW Clearwater Paper Corporation | 14.05 | 22.61 | +38% | 43Weak | $227M |
| KEWL Keweenaw Land Association, Limited | 69.00 | 0.7775 | -8774% | 15No options | $78M |
| MERC Mercer International Inc. | 0.2500 | 2.20 | +89% | 28Weak | $17M |
| JCTC Jewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd. | 2.87 | 6.64 | +57% | 31No options | $10M |
| ITP IT Tech Packaging, Inc. | 0.1260 | 5.82 | +98% | 29Weak | $2M |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about LPX
Is LPX undervalued right now?
No: at 78.82 the stock trades 235% above the GLS average fair value of 23.54 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of LPX and what does it mean?
LPX scores 32 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 3, 4. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for LPX?
23.54 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Louisiana-Pacific Corporation report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for LPX in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does LPX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 48 listed contracts with 2,652 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 41% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.