Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Mosaic Company (MOS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol MOS · Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs · United States · Speculative Income
Is MOS undervalued?
At 21.61 (close of 5 Nov 2026), MOS trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 21.49 (0.6% above fair value). 2 models produced a value and they split 1 above the price to 1 below. A stock priced at fair value earns about half of the Wheel Score's Value points; the rest of the score comes from health, moat, premium and stability.
The average is built from just 2 models (DCF, DDM) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files MOS under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan. It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).
Nine valuation models for MOS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 30.02 | +39% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 12.95 | -40% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -22.05 | -202% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 24.70 | +14% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
The Mosaic Company scores only 3 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 2.9/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.1%, ROE 4.5%, ROA 2.2% - with debt at 0.44 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 4.07% (payout ratio -64%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Phosphates 43%, Mosaic Fertilizantes 35%, Potash 22% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 7 Jul 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | 3.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.9 / 10 | ROE | 4.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.44 | ROA | 2.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -11.8% | Payout ratio | -64% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 32: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 32 The Mosaic Company sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 1% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 3/9 (under 6); and filter 5, can repay its debt - 5.2 years to repay its debt (over 3); and filter 6, no serious red flags - Red Flags score 45 (under 60); Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 51% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 155,063 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 22.2M shares a day on a market cap of $6.9B, with a beta of 0.83; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that good.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 1% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 3/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 5.2 years to repay its debt (over 3) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Fails | Red Flags score 45 (under 60) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 1% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 51% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 2.9/10 | |
| Health | Weak | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 45/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 28,500 contracts a day, 155,063 open interest | |
| Stability | Good | beta 0.83, $6.9B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for MOS in the nightly calendar. The shares go ex-dividend on 4 Dec 2026 (0.2200 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Analysts downgraded MOS 1 time in the last 30 days with no upgrades; the latest action was a reiterated rating by CIBC on 23 Oct 2026.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Agricultural Inputs
The 12 companies below are the closest to The Mosaic Company by market cap within the Agricultural Inputs industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICL ICL Group Ltd | 4.58 | 4.07 | -12% | 37Weak | $5.9B |
| CTVA Corteva, Inc. | 12.26 | 4.89 | -151% | 37Weak | $8.2B |
| SMG The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company | 67.19 | 57.85 | -16% | 32Weak | $3.9B |
| CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | 111.68 | 179.03 | +38% | 91Prime | $16.9B |
| NTR Nutrien Ltd. | 72.07 | 63.18 | -14% | 42Weak | $34.4B |
| UAN CVR Partners, LP | 112.02 | 186.77 | +40% | 51Fair | $1.2B |
| FMC FMC Corporation | 6.42 | 57.28 | +89% | 37Weak | $804M |
| BWEL JG Boswell Company | 593.58 | 1,715.58 | +65% | 29No options | $566M |
| IPI Intrepid Potash, Inc. | 31.28 | 33.00 | +5% | 33Weak | $421M |
| ITFS Itafos Inc. | 1.52 | 2.59 | +42% | 30No options | $295M |
| AVD American Vanguard Corporation | 0.9759 | - | - | 9Weak | $29M |
| BIOX Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp. | 0.2534 | 18.64 | +99% | 27Weak | $16M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MOS
Is MOS undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 21.61 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 21.49 (0.6% above fair value, data as of 5 Nov 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of MOS and what does it mean?
MOS scores 32 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for MOS?
21.49 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Mosaic Company report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for MOS in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does MOS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 342 listed contracts with 155,063 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 51% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.