Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Mosaic Company (MOS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs · United States · High Yield Income
Is MOS undervalued?
At 18.95 (close of 16 Oct 2026), MOS trades 98% over the GLS average fair value of 9.58, with 1 of 7 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (0.3978) and DCF (30.51). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files MOS under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for MOS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 30.51 | +61% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 10.50 | -45% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 7.77 | -59% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 3.40 | -82% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.3978 | -98% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 12.95 | -32% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 1.51 | -92% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -22.05 | -216% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 26.00 | +37% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
The Mosaic Company scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 1.5/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.1%, ROE 4.5%, ROA 2.2% - with debt at 0.44 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 4.64% (payout ratio 648%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Phosphates 43%, Mosaic Fertilizantes 35%, Potash 22% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 7 Jul 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 3.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.5 / 10 | ROE | 4.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.44 | ROA | 2.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -15.7% | Payout ratio | 648% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 57: Fair
A Wheel Score of 57 puts The Mosaic Company in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 16/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 20/20 and Stability 19/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 54% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 405,642 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 10.1M shares a day on a market cap of $6.0B, with a beta of 0.83; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -98% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 2 / 15 | moat 1.5/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 54% | |
| Stability | 19 / 20 | 10.1M shares/day, $6.0B cap, beta 0.83 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Agricultural Inputs
The 12 companies below are the closest to The Mosaic Company by market cap within the Agricultural Inputs industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICL ICL Group Ltd | 4.97 | 3.95 | -26% | 61Fair | $6.4B |
| CTVA Corteva, Inc. | 12.87 | 34.22 | +62% | 91Prime | $8.6B |
| SMG The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company | 49.72 | 62.11 | +20% | 68Good | $2.9B |
| CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | 119.77 | 165.20 | +27% | 88Prime | $18.1B |
| UAN CVR Partners, LP | 127.58 | 203.86 | +37% | 72Good | $1.3B |
| NTR Nutrien Ltd. | 69.58 | 63.31 | -10% | 72Good | $33.2B |
| FMC FMC Corporation | 5.62 | 40.34 | +86% | 45Weak | $704M |
| BWEL JG Boswell Company | 587.05 | 275.89 | -113% | 10No options | $566M |
| IPI Intrepid Potash, Inc. | 32.27 | 28.36 | -14% | 54Fair | $434M |
| ITFS Itafos Inc. | 1.42 | 2.57 | +45% | 39No options | $277M |
| AVD American Vanguard Corporation | 1.25 | - | - | 40Weak | $37M |
| BIOX Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp. | 0.2939 | 18.65 | +98% | 45Weak | $19M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MOS
Is MOS undervalued right now?
No: at 18.95 the stock trades 98% above the GLS average fair value of 9.58 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of MOS and what does it mean?
MOS scores 57 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MOS?
9.58 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Mosaic Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MOS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 700 listed contracts with 405,642 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 54% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.