The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is SMG undervalued?

At 49.72 (close of 16 Oct 2026), SMG trades 20% under the GLS average fair value of 62.11. 3 of the 7 models that produced a value land above the price. A discount of this size counts as a positive margin of safety in every GLS screen; whether it is enough depends on the rest of the picture - the health score, the moat and the option premium below.

There is a wide gap between Lynch (11.94) and 10 Cap (131.85). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.

The nightly engine files SMG under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.

Nine valuation models for SMG

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 1.6/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.

Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.2%, ROE -40.6%, ROA 5.3% - with debt at -6.66 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 11.3%.

The dividend yield is high at 5.31% (payout ratio 314%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from United States Consumer 88%, Other Segments 12% (quarter Q3 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 68: Good

With a Wheel Score of 68 - the Good band - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company falls just short of the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 21/25, Health 11/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 14/20; Moat (2/15) scores lowest.

Implied volatility is 52% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 13,519 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 928k shares a day on a market cap of $2.9B, with a beta of 1.85 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Agricultural Inputs

The 12 companies below are the closest to The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company by market cap within the Agricultural Inputs industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

⚖ Compare SMG with 7 of them   All Basic Materials stocks →