Stock fact sheet · data as of
CVR Partners, LP (UAN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs · United States · High Yield Income
Is UAN undervalued?
UAN has a margin of safety of 37%: the stock closed at 127.58 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 203.86. 6 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 44.37 while DCF gives 424.17. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files UAN under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for UAN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 424.17 | +232% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 105.81 | -17% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 244.55 | +92% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 60.63 | -52% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 44.37 | -65% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 311.71 | +144% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 262.18 | +106% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 212.92 | +67% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 168.43 | +32% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -46.34 | -136% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - UAN passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.4 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 11.5%, ROE 37.1%, ROA 10.2% - with debt at 2.23 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 10.7%. Debt of 2.23 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 11.34% (payout ratio 81%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Product, UAN 65%, Product, Ammonia 21%, Products, Other 8% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 11.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.4 / 10 | ROE | 37.1% |
| Debt / equity | 2.23 | ROA | 10.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 10.7% | Payout ratio | 81% |
| Institutions | 7 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 72: Good
UAN scores 72 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (5/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (9/20). Moat (5/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 45% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 10,601 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 19k shares a day on a market cap of $1.3B, with a beta of 0.14 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 9 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 37% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 45% | |
| Stability | 9 / 20 | 19k shares/day, $1.3B cap, beta 0.14 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
CVR Partners, LP reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Agricultural Inputs
The 12 companies below are the closest to CVR Partners, LP by market cap within the Agricultural Inputs industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMC FMC Corporation | 5.62 | 40.34 | +86% | 45Weak | $704M |
| SMG The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company | 49.72 | 62.11 | +20% | 68Good | $2.9B |
| BWEL JG Boswell Company | 587.05 | 275.89 | -113% | 10No options | $566M |
| IPI Intrepid Potash, Inc. | 32.27 | 28.36 | -14% | 54Fair | $434M |
| MOS The Mosaic Company | 18.95 | 9.58 | -98% | 57Fair | $6.0B |
| ICL ICL Group Ltd | 4.97 | 3.95 | -26% | 61Fair | $6.4B |
| ITFS Itafos Inc. | 1.42 | 2.57 | +45% | 39No options | $277M |
| CTVA Corteva, Inc. | 12.87 | 34.22 | +62% | 91Prime | $8.6B |
| CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | 119.77 | 165.20 | +27% | 88Prime | $18.1B |
| NTR Nutrien Ltd. | 69.58 | 63.31 | -10% | 72Good | $33.2B |
| AVD American Vanguard Corporation | 1.25 | - | - | 40Weak | $37M |
| BIOX Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp. | 0.2939 | 18.65 | +98% | 45Weak | $19M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about UAN
Is UAN undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 127.58 the stock is 37% below the average fair value of 203.86 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of UAN and what does it mean?
UAN scores 72 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for UAN?
203.86 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does CVR Partners, LP report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does UAN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 248 listed contracts with 10,601 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 45% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.