Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Progressive Corporation (PGR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · High Growth
Is PGR undervalued?
PGR has a margin of safety of 54%: the stock closed at 213.46 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 465.89. 6 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between Graham Number (61.59) and GLS Growth (1,223.15). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files PGR under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for PGR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 335.65 | +57% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 61.59 | -71% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 322.34 | +51% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 79.92 | -63% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 1,223.15 | +473% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 658.02 | +208% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 1,085.84 | +409% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 204.53 | -4% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 222.00 | +4% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -90.44 | -142% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 222.23 | +4% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
The Progressive Corporation scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 8.9/10 puts PGR among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 30.4%, ROE 37.3%, ROA 9.2% - with debt at 0.23 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 12.9%.
The dividend yield is high at 6.51% (payout ratio 70%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Personal Lines 88%, Commercial Lines 12% (quarter Q1 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.9 / 10 | ROE | 37.3% |
| Debt / equity | 0.23 | ROA | 9.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 12.9% | Payout ratio | 70% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 88: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 88, The Progressive Corporation sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 16/20, Moat 13/15, Premium 14/20, Stability 20/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 29% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (14 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 53,428 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 7.2M shares a day on a market cap of $124.0B, with a beta of 0.24 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 54% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 13 / 15 | moat 8.9/10 | |
| Premium | 14 / 20 | implied volatility 29% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 7.2M shares/day, $124.0B cap, beta 0.24 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The Progressive Corporation reports earnings on 21 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to The Progressive Corporation by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB Chubb Limited | 352.79 | 592.59 | +40% | 84Prime | $136.1B |
| TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. | 377.82 | 755.75 | +50% | 84Prime | $78.8B |
| ALL The Allstate Corporation | 239.60 | 964.49 | +75% | 90Prime | $60.6B |
| WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | 73.80 | 95.04 | +22% | 85Prime | $27.4B |
| CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 167.22 | 449.78 | +63% | 84Prime | $25.7B |
| MKL Markel Corporation | 1,824.54 | 5,307.56 | +66% | 68Good | $22.6B |
| L Loews Corporation | 108.79 | 231.90 | +53% | 82Prime | $22.2B |
| AIZN Assurant, Inc. 5.25% Subordinat | 17.18 | 154.79 | +89% | 39No options | $14.0B |
| AIZ Assurant, Inc. | 281.87 | 513.45 | +45% | 87Prime | $13.9B |
| CNA CNA Financial Corporation | 47.31 | 105.66 | +55% | 87Prime | $12.8B |
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | 145.73 | 182.51 | +20% | 67Good | $12.1B |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | 238.69 | 218.24 | -9% | 69Good | $11.0B |
⚖ Compare PGR with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about PGR
Is PGR undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 213.46 the stock is 54% below the average fair value of 465.89 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of PGR and what does it mean?
PGR scores 88 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for PGR?
465.89 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Progressive Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 21 Oct 2026 (before the open), 5 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does PGR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 53,428 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 29% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.