Stock fact sheet · data as of
Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol SPOT · Communication Services · Internet Content & Information · Sweden · Growth
Is SPOT undervalued?
Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) closed at 627.66 on 5 Nov 2026, 36% above the GLS average fair value of 460.93. 5 of the 8 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The 8 models disagree widely: Graham Number gives 128.84 while GLS Growth gives 989.52. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, SPOT is clearly faster-growing than it is cheap, so the nightly engine files it under Growth (value score 12, growth score 72, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for SPOT
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 286.14 | -54% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 128.84 | -79% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 698.78 | +11% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 288.64 | -54% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 989.52 | +58% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 406.54 | -35% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 709.42 | +13% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 179.59 | -71% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 20.88 | -97% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 627.77 | +0% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health SPOT scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.0 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 21.5%, ROE 26.6%, ROA 14.7% - with debt at 0.23 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.8%.
Spotify Technology S.A. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Premium 88%, Ad Supported 12% (fiscal year FY2024).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 21.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.0 / 10 | ROE | 26.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.23 | ROA | 14.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.8% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 43: Weak
SPOT scores 43 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 3, below fair value - trades 36% above our fair value, and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium strong, moat fair, health strong, red flags good, option trading strong, stability strong. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 38% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 54,254 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.8M shares a day on a market cap of $129.0B, with a beta of 1.49 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that strong.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 36% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 36% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 38% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 4.0/10 | |
| Health | Strong | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 82/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 11,939 contracts a day, 54,254 open interest | |
| Stability | Strong | beta 1.49, $129.0B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for SPOT in the nightly calendar.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Internet Content & Information
The 12 companies below are the closest to Spotify Technology S.A. by market cap within the Internet Content & Information industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DASH DoorDash, Inc. | 198.59 | 112.83 | -76% | 40Weak | $86.6B |
| BIDU Baidu, Inc. | 80.43 | 428.53 | +81% | 52Fair | $27.4B |
| RDDT Reddit, Inc. | 101.77 | 166.26 | +39% | 82Good | $19.6B |
| TME Tencent Music Entertainment Group | 9.48 | 18.07 | +48% | 54Fair | $15.5B |
| META Meta Platforms, Inc. | 630.00 | 599.65 | -5% | 44Weak | $1.40T |
| PINS Pinterest, Inc. | 21.22 | 16.34 | -30% | 38Weak | $10.6B |
| SNAP Snap Inc. | 5.92 | 9.86 | +40% | 39Weak | $10.0B |
| MTCH Match Group, Inc. | 40.21 | 92.70 | +57% | 53Fair | $9.2B |
| ZG Zillow Group, Inc. Class A | 34.45 | 17.01 | -103% | 18Weak | $7.7B |
| Z Zillow Group, Inc. Class C | 33.90 | 17.01 | -99% | 22Weak | $7.6B |
| BILI Bilibili Inc. | 13.88 | 25.38 | +45% | 51Fair | $5.8B |
| GOOG Alphabet Inc. | 287.30 | 270.39 | -6% | 44Weak | $3.52T |
⚖ Compare SPOT with 7 of them All Communication Services stocks →
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about SPOT
Is SPOT undervalued right now?
No: at 627.66 the stock trades 36% above the GLS average fair value of 460.93 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of SPOT and what does it mean?
SPOT scores 43 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 3. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for SPOT?
460.93 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Spotify Technology S.A. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for SPOT in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does SPOT have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,346 listed contracts with 54,254 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 38% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.