Stock fact sheet · data as of
Trex Company, Inc. (TREX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Construction Materials · United States · Blend
Is TREX undervalued?
TREX closed at 44.37 on 16 Oct 2026, which is 12% above the GLS average fair value of 39.48 from 8 models. 4 of them value the shares below today's price. Our screens read that as "no margin of safety": the stock is not a value candidate at this price, whatever the quality numbers say.
There is a wide gap between DCF (6.72) and Graham Growth (72.52). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files TREX under Blend.
Nine valuation models for TREX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 6.72 | -85% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 19.62 | -56% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 72.52 | +63% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 29.72 | -33% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 45.70 | +3% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 61.50 | +39% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 60.83 | +37% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 19.26 | -57% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -1.43 | -103% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 54.40 | +23% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Trex Company, Inc. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 8.0/10 puts TREX among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 15.1%, ROE 18.4%, ROA 12.8% - with debt at 0.22 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.5%.
Trex Company, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 8/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 15.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.0 / 10 | ROE | 18.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.22 | ROA | 12.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.5% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 8 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 67: Good
With a Wheel Score of 67 - the Good band - Trex Company, Inc. falls just short of the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 7/25, Health 11/20, Moat 12/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 16/20; Value (7/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 53% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 5,603 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.1M shares a day on a market cap of $4.5B, with a beta of 1.48 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 7 / 25 | -12% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 12 / 15 | moat 8.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 53% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 1.1M shares/day, $4.5B cap, beta 1.48 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Construction Materials
The 12 companies below are the closest to Trex Company, Inc. by market cap within the Construction Materials industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBIN Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 39.96 | 30.61 | -31% | 60Fair | $4.8B |
| GFF Griffon Corporation | 93.21 | 103.26 | +10% | 71Good | $4.3B |
| EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | 170.58 | 190.85 | +11% | 76Good | $5.2B |
| BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | 53.68 | 54.24 | +1% | 68Good | $5.8B |
| USLM United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. | 104.88 | 100.85 | -4% | 68Good | $3.0B |
| SSD Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | 171.08 | 136.82 | -25% | 64Fair | $7.0B |
| AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | 166.59 | 158.94 | -5% | 72Good | $7.0B |
| KNF Knife River Corporation | 49.95 | 66.95 | +25% | 75Good | $2.8B |
| ACA Arcosa, Inc. | 147.01 | 99.18 | -48% | 47Weak | $7.2B |
| SPXC SPX Technologies, Inc. | 168.23 | 150.84 | -12% | 64Fair | $8.4B |
| TTAM Titan America S.A. | 13.07 | 22.15 | +41% | 80Prime | $2.4B |
| OC Owens Corning | 113.69 | 149.84 | +24% | 45Weak | $9.0B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TREX
Is TREX undervalued right now?
No: at 44.37 the stock trades 12% above the GLS average fair value of 39.48 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of TREX and what does it mean?
TREX scores 67 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TREX?
39.48 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Trex Company, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TREX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 182 listed contracts with 5,603 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 53% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.