Stock fact sheet · data as of
ADT Inc. (ADT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Security & Protection Services · United States · Value
Is ADT undervalued?
At 6.86 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ADT trades 76% below the GLS average fair value of 28.88. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 7 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns ADT Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between DDM (3.24) and Payback Time (70.70). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files ADT under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for ADT
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 50.69 | +639% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 9.49 | +38% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 19.31 | +182% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 6.29 | -8% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 30.78 | +349% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 60.08 | +776% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 70.70 | +931% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 3.24 | -53% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 9.39 | +37% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -15.19 | -321% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 7.38 | +8% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
ADT Inc. scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability ADT scores 6.4/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.2%, ROE 15.8%, ROA 3.8% - with debt at 2.03 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 37.5%. Debt of 2.03 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 3.21% at a payout ratio of 29%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Monitoring And Related Services 83%, Security Installation, Product And Other 18% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 5.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.4 / 10 | ROE | 15.8% |
| Debt / equity | 2.03 | ROA | 3.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 37.5% | Payout ratio | 29% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 91: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 91, ADT Inc. sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 18/20, Moat 10/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 19/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 42% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 22,932 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 5.9M shares a day on a market cap of $5.0B, with a beta of 1.06; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 76% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 42% | |
| Stability | 19 / 20 | 5.9M shares/day, $5.0B cap, beta 1.06 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Security & Protection Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to ADT Inc. by market cap within the Security & Protection Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCO The Brink's Company | 104.42 | 151.65 | +31% | 87Prime | $4.3B |
| BRC Brady Corporation | 84.03 | 71.44 | -18% | 64Fair | $3.9B |
| GEO The GEO Group, Inc. | 29.33 | 40.63 | +28% | 82Prime | $3.9B |
| MNESP MSA Safety Incorporated | 37.50 | 89.90 | +58% | 39No options | $7.0B |
| MSA MSA Safety Incorporated | 181.79 | 168.25 | -8% | 63Fair | $7.0B |
| CXW CoreCivic, Inc. | 31.23 | 15.06 | -107% | 56Fair | $3.1B |
| ALLE Allegion plc | 155.75 | 168.32 | +7% | 80Prime | $13.2B |
| NSSC Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | 35.96 | 27.06 | -33% | 58Fair | $1.3B |
| EVLV Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. | 4.18 | 0.3414 | -1124% | 42Weak | $752M |
| MG Mistras Group, Inc. | 20.67 | 21.72 | +5% | 61Fair | $659M |
| CIX CompX International Inc. | 37.28 | 22.47 | -66% | 28No options | $460M |
| NL NLI Holdings, Inc. | 6.75 | 9.58 | +30% | 45Weak | $330M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ADT
Is ADT undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 6.86 the stock is 76% below the average fair value of 28.88 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ADT and what does it mean?
ADT scores 91 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ADT?
28.88 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does ADT Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ADT have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 198 listed contracts with 22,932 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 42% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.