Stock fact sheet · data as of
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Security & Protection Services · United States · Value
Is GEO undervalued?
At 29.33 (close of 16 Oct 2026), GEO trades 28% under the GLS average fair value of 40.63. 3 of the 8 models that produced a value land above the price. A discount of this size counts as a positive margin of safety in every GLS screen; whether it is enough depends on the rest of the picture - the health score, the moat and the option premium below.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (6.53) and Graham Growth (122.00). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files GEO under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for GEO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 21.11 | -28% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 24.15 | -18% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 122.00 | +316% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 52.90 | +80% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 6.53 | -78% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 49.93 | +70% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 23.65 | -19% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 24.80 | -15% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -12.32 | -142% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 40.00 | +36% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
The GEO Group, Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 3.4/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.9%, ROE 16.9%, ROA 6.6% - with debt at 1.15 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.2%.
The GEO Group, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Us Corrections And Detention 71%, Electronic Monitoring And Supervision S… 10%, Reentry Services 10% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 7.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.4 / 10 | ROE | 16.9% |
| Debt / equity | 1.15 | ROA | 6.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.2% | Payout ratio | 1% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 82: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 82, The GEO Group, Inc. sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 24/25, Health 16/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 19/20, Stability 18/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 64% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (19 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 293,276 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 1.8M shares a day on a market cap of $3.9B, with a beta of 0.77 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 24 / 25 | 28% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.4/10 | |
| Premium | 19 / 20 | implied volatility 64% | |
| Stability | 18 / 20 | 1.8M shares/day, $3.9B cap, beta 0.77 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Security & Protection Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to The GEO Group, Inc. by market cap within the Security & Protection Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRC Brady Corporation | 84.03 | 71.44 | -18% | 64Fair | $3.9B |
| BCO The Brink's Company | 104.42 | 151.65 | +31% | 87Prime | $4.3B |
| CXW CoreCivic, Inc. | 31.23 | 15.06 | -107% | 56Fair | $3.1B |
| ADT ADT Inc. | 6.86 | 28.88 | +76% | 91Prime | $5.0B |
| MNESP MSA Safety Incorporated | 37.50 | 89.90 | +58% | 39No options | $7.0B |
| MSA MSA Safety Incorporated | 181.79 | 168.25 | -8% | 63Fair | $7.0B |
| NSSC Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | 35.96 | 27.06 | -33% | 58Fair | $1.3B |
| ALLE Allegion plc | 155.75 | 168.32 | +7% | 80Prime | $13.2B |
| EVLV Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. | 4.18 | 0.3414 | -1124% | 42Weak | $752M |
| MG Mistras Group, Inc. | 20.67 | 21.72 | +5% | 61Fair | $659M |
| CIX CompX International Inc. | 37.28 | 22.47 | -66% | 28No options | $460M |
| NL NLI Holdings, Inc. | 6.75 | 9.58 | +30% | 45Weak | $330M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about GEO
Is GEO undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 29.33 the stock trades 28% below the average fair value of 40.63 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of GEO and what does it mean?
GEO scores 82 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for GEO?
40.63 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The GEO Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does GEO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 388 listed contracts with 293,276 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 64% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.