Stock fact sheet · data as of
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Security & Protection Services · United States · Blend
Is CXW undervalued?
CXW closed at 31.23 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 15.06. Only 0 of the 8 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
The 8 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 3.63 while 10 Cap gives 28.08. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CXW under Blend.
Nine valuation models for CXW
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 19.72 | -37% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 19.71 | -37% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 19.99 | -36% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 4.96 | -84% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 3.63 | -88% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 28.08 | -10% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 10.64 | -66% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 13.77 | -56% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -12.54 | -140% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 37.50 | +20% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - CXW passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.3 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.4%, ROE 8.3%, ROA 3.6% - with debt at 0.87 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.9%.
CoreCivic, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Residential 87%, Services 13%, Properties 1% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 4.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.3 / 10 | ROE | 8.3% |
| Debt / equity | 0.87 | ROA | 3.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.9% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 56: Fair
CXW scores 56 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 17/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 60% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 138,564 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 1.5M shares a day on a market cap of $3.1B, with a beta of 0.57 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -107% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.3/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 60% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 1.5M shares/day, $3.1B cap, beta 0.57 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Security & Protection Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to CoreCivic, Inc. by market cap within the Security & Protection Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEO The GEO Group, Inc. | 29.33 | 40.63 | +28% | 82Prime | $3.9B |
| BRC Brady Corporation | 84.03 | 71.44 | -18% | 64Fair | $3.9B |
| BCO The Brink's Company | 104.42 | 151.65 | +31% | 87Prime | $4.3B |
| ADT ADT Inc. | 6.86 | 28.88 | +76% | 91Prime | $5.0B |
| MNESP MSA Safety Incorporated | 37.50 | 89.90 | +58% | 39No options | $7.0B |
| MSA MSA Safety Incorporated | 181.79 | 168.25 | -8% | 63Fair | $7.0B |
| NSSC Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | 35.96 | 27.06 | -33% | 58Fair | $1.3B |
| EVLV Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. | 4.18 | 0.3414 | -1124% | 42Weak | $752M |
| ALLE Allegion plc | 155.75 | 168.32 | +7% | 80Prime | $13.2B |
| MG Mistras Group, Inc. | 20.67 | 21.72 | +5% | 61Fair | $659M |
| CIX CompX International Inc. | 37.28 | 22.47 | -66% | 28No options | $460M |
| NL NLI Holdings, Inc. | 6.75 | 9.58 | +30% | 45Weak | $330M |
Screen the whole market the same way
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CXW
Is CXW undervalued right now?
No: at 31.23 the stock trades 107% above the GLS average fair value of 15.06 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of CXW and what does it mean?
CXW scores 56 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CXW?
15.06 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does CoreCivic, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CXW have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 362 listed contracts with 138,564 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 60% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.