Stock fact sheet · data as of
MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Security & Protection Services · United States · Blend
Is MSA undervalued?
At 181.79 (close of 16 Oct 2026), MSA trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 168.25 (8.0% above fair value). 9 models produced a value and they split 5 above the price to 4 below. A stock priced at fair value earns about half of the Wheel Score's Value points; the rest of the score comes from health, moat, premium and stability.
There is a wide gap between DDM (31.49) and Payback Time (298.14). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files MSA under Blend.
Nine valuation models for MSA
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 228.86 | +26% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 80.98 | -55% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 203.12 | +12% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 69.53 | -62% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 272.59 | +50% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 239.76 | +32% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 298.14 | +64% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 31.49 | -83% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 89.79 | -51% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -8.24 | -105% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 210.00 | +16% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
MSA Safety Incorporated scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability MSA scores 7.0/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 14.0%, ROE 20.4%, ROA 10.9% - with debt at 0.46 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.0%.
The dividend yield is 1.18% with a payout ratio of 26% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Detection 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 14.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.0 / 10 | ROE | 20.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.46 | ROA | 10.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.0% | Payout ratio | 26% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 63: Fair
A Wheel Score of 63 puts MSA Safety Incorporated in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 9/25, Health 18/20, Moat 11/15, Premium 12/20 and Stability 14/20; the weakest part is Value (9/25).
Implied volatility is 27% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (12 of 20 points). Chain open interest is thin - 280 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 222k shares a day on a market cap of $7.0B, with a beta of 0.91; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 9 / 25 | -8% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 11 / 15 | moat 7.0/10 | |
| Premium | 12 / 20 | implied volatility 27% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 222k shares/day, $7.0B cap, beta 0.91 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
MSA Safety Incorporated reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Security & Protection Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to MSA Safety Incorporated by market cap within the Security & Protection Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNESP MSA Safety Incorporated | 37.50 | 89.90 | +58% | 39No options | $7.0B |
| ADT ADT Inc. | 6.86 | 28.88 | +76% | 91Prime | $5.0B |
| BCO The Brink's Company | 104.42 | 151.65 | +31% | 87Prime | $4.3B |
| BRC Brady Corporation | 84.03 | 71.44 | -18% | 64Fair | $3.9B |
| GEO The GEO Group, Inc. | 29.33 | 40.63 | +28% | 82Prime | $3.9B |
| ALLE Allegion plc | 155.75 | 168.32 | +7% | 80Prime | $13.2B |
| CXW CoreCivic, Inc. | 31.23 | 15.06 | -107% | 56Fair | $3.1B |
| NSSC Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | 35.96 | 27.06 | -33% | 58Fair | $1.3B |
| EVLV Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. | 4.18 | 0.3414 | -1124% | 42Weak | $752M |
| MG Mistras Group, Inc. | 20.67 | 21.72 | +5% | 61Fair | $659M |
| CIX CompX International Inc. | 37.28 | 22.47 | -66% | 28No options | $460M |
| NL NLI Holdings, Inc. | 6.75 | 9.58 | +30% | 45Weak | $330M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MSA
Is MSA undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 181.79 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 168.25 (8.0% above fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of MSA and what does it mean?
MSA scores 63 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MSA?
168.25 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does MSA Safety Incorporated report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close), 11 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MSA have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 232 listed contracts with 280 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 27% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.