Stock fact sheet · data as of
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Security & Protection Services · United States · High Growth
Is NSSC undervalued?
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) closed at 35.96 on 16 Oct 2026, 33% above the GLS average fair value of 27.06. 5 of the 9 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
There is a wide gap between DDM (8.98) and Payback Time (53.80). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files NSSC under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for NSSC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 26.81 | -25% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 12.05 | -66% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 37.54 | +4% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 14.07 | -61% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 39.53 | +10% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 37.32 | +4% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 53.80 | +50% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 8.98 | -75% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 13.40 | -63% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 4.48 | -88% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 52.00 | +45% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 8.4/10 puts NSSC among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 21.9%, ROE 22.5%, ROA 18.0% - with debt at 0.03 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.6%.
The dividend yield is 1.70% at a payout ratio of 47%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Service 45%, Door locking devices 36%, Intrusion and access alarm products 18% (quarter Q4 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 21.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.4 / 10 | ROE | 22.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.03 | ROA | 18.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.6% | Payout ratio | 47% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 58: Fair
A Wheel Score of 58 puts Napco Security Technologies, Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 16/20, Moat 13/15, Premium 20/20 and Stability 10/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 55% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 496 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 224k shares a day on a market cap of $1.3B, with a beta of 1.50 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -33% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 13 / 15 | moat 8.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 55% | |
| Stability | 10 / 20 | 224k shares/day, $1.3B cap, beta 1.50 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (before the open), 17 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Security & Protection Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to Napco Security Technologies, Inc. by market cap within the Security & Protection Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVLV Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. | 4.18 | 0.3414 | -1124% | 42Weak | $752M |
| MG Mistras Group, Inc. | 20.67 | 21.72 | +5% | 61Fair | $659M |
| CXW CoreCivic, Inc. | 31.23 | 15.06 | -107% | 56Fair | $3.1B |
| CIX CompX International Inc. | 37.28 | 22.47 | -66% | 28No options | $460M |
| GEO The GEO Group, Inc. | 29.33 | 40.63 | +28% | 82Prime | $3.9B |
| BRC Brady Corporation | 84.03 | 71.44 | -18% | 64Fair | $3.9B |
| BCO The Brink's Company | 104.42 | 151.65 | +31% | 87Prime | $4.3B |
| ADT ADT Inc. | 6.86 | 28.88 | +76% | 91Prime | $5.0B |
| NL NLI Holdings, Inc. | 6.75 | 9.58 | +30% | 45Weak | $330M |
| MNESP MSA Safety Incorporated | 37.50 | 89.90 | +58% | 39No options | $7.0B |
| MSA MSA Safety Incorporated | 181.79 | 168.25 | -8% | 63Fair | $7.0B |
| ALLE Allegion plc | 155.75 | 168.32 | +7% | 80Prime | $13.2B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NSSC
Is NSSC undervalued right now?
No: at 35.96 the stock trades 33% above the GLS average fair value of 27.06 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of NSSC and what does it mean?
NSSC scores 58 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NSSC?
27.06 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Napco Security Technologies, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (before the open), 17 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NSSC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 110 listed contracts with 496 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 55% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.