Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Brink's Company (BCO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Security & Protection Services · United States · Blend
Is BCO undervalued?
BCO has a margin of safety of 31%: the stock closed at 104.42 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 151.65. 4 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 15.01 while DCF gives 436.72. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files BCO under Blend.
Nine valuation models for BCO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 436.72 | +318% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 27.15 | -74% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 206.81 | +98% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 87.18 | -17% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 43.26 | -59% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 274.69 | +163% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 225.46 | +116% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 15.01 | -86% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 48.55 | -54% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -87.49 | -184% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 163.00 | +56% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health BCO scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 6.0 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.8%, ROE 71.9%, ROA 2.7% - with debt at 17.74 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 9.2%. Debt of 17.74 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 0.98% with a payout ratio of 23% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from North America 39%, Latin America 33%, Europe 28% (quarter Q4 FY2023).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 1 Oct 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 3.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.0 / 10 | ROE | 71.9% |
| Debt / equity | 17.74 | ROA | 2.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 9.2% | Payout ratio | 23% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 87: Prime
BCO scores 87 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (18/20), the GLS moat (9/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (15/20).
Implied volatility is 38% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 7,106 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 525k shares a day on a market cap of $4.3B, with a beta of 0.96; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 31% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 6.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 38% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 525k shares/day, $4.3B cap, beta 0.96 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium. The shares go ex-dividend on 2 Nov 2026 (0.2550 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Security & Protection Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to The Brink's Company by market cap within the Security & Protection Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRC Brady Corporation | 84.03 | 71.44 | -18% | 64Fair | $3.9B |
| GEO The GEO Group, Inc. | 29.33 | 40.63 | +28% | 82Prime | $3.9B |
| ADT ADT Inc. | 6.86 | 28.88 | +76% | 91Prime | $5.0B |
| CXW CoreCivic, Inc. | 31.23 | 15.06 | -107% | 56Fair | $3.1B |
| MNESP MSA Safety Incorporated | 37.50 | 89.90 | +58% | 39No options | $7.0B |
| MSA MSA Safety Incorporated | 181.79 | 168.25 | -8% | 63Fair | $7.0B |
| ALLE Allegion plc | 155.75 | 168.32 | +7% | 80Prime | $13.2B |
| NSSC Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | 35.96 | 27.06 | -33% | 58Fair | $1.3B |
| EVLV Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. | 4.18 | 0.3414 | -1124% | 42Weak | $752M |
| MG Mistras Group, Inc. | 20.67 | 21.72 | +5% | 61Fair | $659M |
| CIX CompX International Inc. | 37.28 | 22.47 | -66% | 28No options | $460M |
| NL NLI Holdings, Inc. | 6.75 | 9.58 | +30% | 45Weak | $330M |
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about BCO
Is BCO undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 104.42 the stock is 31% below the average fair value of 151.65 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of BCO and what does it mean?
BCO scores 87 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for BCO?
151.65 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Brink's Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does BCO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 310 listed contracts with 7,106 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 38% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.