Stock fact sheet · data as of
RLI Corp. (RLI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · High Yield Income
Is RLI undervalued?
RLI Corp. (RLI) closed at 57.63 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 80.12, so the price sits 28% below it. 5 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (19.04) and 10 Cap (136.56). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files RLI under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for RLI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 135.17 | +135% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 45.12 | -22% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 76.80 | +33% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 19.04 | -67% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 51.13 | -11% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 136.56 | +137% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 135.47 | +135% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 68.86 | +19% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 52.89 | -8% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -17.17 | -130% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 59.33 | +3% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
RLI Corp. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability RLI scores 7.1/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 21.5%, ROE 22.7%, ROA 6.5% - with debt at 0.06 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 9.8%.
The dividend yield is high at 8.12% (payout ratio 98%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Casualty 62%, Property Insurance 30%, Surety Insurance 9% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 21.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.1 / 10 | ROE | 22.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.06 | ROA | 6.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 9.8% | Payout ratio | 98% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 83: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 83, RLI Corp. sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 24/25, Health 13/20, Moat 11/15, Premium 19/20, Stability 16/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 34% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (19 of 20 points). Chain open interest is thin - 266 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 628k shares a day on a market cap of $5.3B, with a beta of 0.32 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 24 / 25 | 28% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 11 / 15 | moat 7.1/10 | |
| Premium | 19 / 20 | implied volatility 34% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 628k shares/day, $5.3B cap, beta 0.32 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
RLI Corp. reports earnings on 19 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to RLI Corp. by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HGTY Hagerty, Inc. | 15.30 | 17.27 | +11% | 70Good | $5.3B |
| SIGIP Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 15.14 | 104.89 | +86% | 39No options | $5.1B |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 86.21 | 221.49 | +61% | 85Prime | $5.1B |
| MCY Mercury General Corporation | 101.79 | 362.23 | +72% | 82Prime | $5.6B |
| ARX Accelerant Holdings | 19.76 | 5.94 | -232% | 45Weak | $4.3B |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | 136.75 | 236.87 | +42% | 84Prime | $3.6B |
| THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 226.17 | 567.49 | +60% | 79Good | $7.9B |
| LMND Lemonade, Inc. | 45.86 | 4.31 | -963% | 43Weak | $3.5B |
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | 357.49 | 648.69 | +45% | 85Prime | $8.1B |
| AFSIN AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 13.98 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $3.1B |
| AFSIP AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 14.17 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $3.0B |
| AFSIM AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 15.30 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $3.0B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about RLI
Is RLI undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 57.63 the stock trades 28% below the average fair value of 80.12 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of RLI and what does it mean?
RLI scores 83 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for RLI?
80.12 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does RLI Corp. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 19 Oct 2026 (after the close), 3 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does RLI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 142 listed contracts with 266 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 34% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.