Stock fact sheet · data as of
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol SIGI · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · Blend Quality
Is SIGI undervalued?
SIGI has a margin of safety of 53%: the stock closed at 103.20 on 5 Nov 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 220.39. 6 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our scans treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 25.31 while Payback Time gives 619.14. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for SIGI, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 62, growth score 60, out of 100). It also carries the Quality tag (Quality = moat 7.5+ out of 10 and Piotroski 7+).
Nine valuation models for SIGI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 195.55 | +89% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 106.18 | +3% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 175.92 | +70% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 53.33 | -48% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 277.16 | +169% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 435.11 | +322% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 619.14 | +500% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 25.31 | -75% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 95.78 | -7% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -150.58 | -246% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 100.80 | -2% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health SIGI scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 8.2 out of 10 - high returns on capital, steady margins and growth that held up through bad years point to a durable business.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 10.1%, ROE 12.9%, ROA 3.3% - with debt at 0.28 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 18.5%.
The dividend yield is 1.67% at a payout ratio of 21%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Insurance Operations 47%, Standard Commercial Lines 37%, E&S Lines 6% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 10.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.2 / 10 | ROE | 12.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.28 | ROA | 3.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 18.5% | Payout ratio | 21% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 43: Weak
SIGI scores 43 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (145 open interest, 39 a day), and the parts are thin too - value strong, premium fair, moat strong, health good, red flags fair, option trading weak, stability good. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 26% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. Chain open interest is thin - 145 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 570k shares a day on a market cap of $6.1B, with a beta of 0.28 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that good.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (145 open interest, 39 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 53% below fair value | |
| Premium | Fair | implied volatility 26% | |
| Moat | Strong | moat 8.2/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Red Flags | Fair | Red Flags score 72/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 39 contracts a day, 145 open interest | |
| Stability | Good | beta 0.28, $6.1B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for SIGI in the nightly calendar. The shares go ex-dividend on 16 Nov 2026 (0.4800 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to Selective Insurance Group, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RLI RLI Corp. | 68.91 | 77.16 | +11% | 36Weak | $6.3B |
| SIGIP Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 14.99 | 101.31 | +85% | 37No options | $5.9B |
| HGTY Hagerty, Inc. | 18.71 | 24.70 | +24% | 43Weak | $6.4B |
| MCY Mercury General Corporation | 88.93 | 289.08 | +69% | 78Good | $4.9B |
| THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 249.93 | 573.77 | +56% | 75Good | $8.6B |
| ARX Accelerant Holdings | 19.85 | 5.94 | -234% | 33Weak | $4.3B |
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | 391.73 | 618.66 | +37% | 82Good | $8.8B |
| ORI Old Republic International Corporation | 39.96 | 56.77 | +30% | 39Weak | $9.6B |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | 144.04 | 246.53 | +42% | 49Weak | $3.8B |
| LMND Lemonade, Inc. | 45.90 | 4.31 | -964% | 23Weak | $3.6B |
| SLDE Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. Common Stock | 27.28 | 96.94 | +72% | 82Good | $3.2B |
| AFSIM AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 14.70 | 1,681,551.22 | +100% | 33No options | $3.1B |
⚖ Compare SIGI with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about SIGI
Is SIGI undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 103.20 the stock is 53% below the average fair value of 220.39 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of SIGI and what does it mean?
SIGI scores 43 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 1. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for SIGI?
220.39 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Selective Insurance Group, Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for SIGI in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does SIGI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 56 listed contracts with 145 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 26% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.