Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · Defensive
Is THG undervalued?
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG) closed at 226.17 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 567.49, which puts the price 60% below it. 6 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
There is a wide gap between DDM (55.91) and Payback Time (1,397.75). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files THG under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for THG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 635.14 | +181% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 222.58 | -2% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 343.39 | +52% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 85.14 | -62% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 1,303.04 | +476% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 827.94 | +266% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 1,397.75 | +518% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 55.91 | -75% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 236.49 | +5% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -184.53 | -182% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 229.60 | +2% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability THG scores 6.7/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 13.8%, ROE 18.5%, ROA 3.9% - with debt at 0.34 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 15.9%.
The dividend yield is 1.68% at a payout ratio of 18%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Personal Lines 40%, Core Commercial Lines 37%, Specialty Lines 23% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 6/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.7 / 10 | ROE | 18.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.34 | ROA | 3.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 15.9% | Payout ratio | 18% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 6 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 79: Good
With a Wheel Score of 79 - the Good band - The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 16/20, Moat 10/15, Premium 14/20, Stability 14/20; Moat (10/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 29% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (14 of 20 points). Chain open interest is thin - 324 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 231k shares a day on a market cap of $7.9B, with a beta of 0.28 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 60% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.7/10 | |
| Premium | 14 / 20 | implied volatility 29% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 231k shares/day, $7.9B cap, beta 0.28 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | 357.49 | 648.69 | +45% | 85Prime | $8.1B |
| ORI Old Republic International Corporation | 38.67 | 81.52 | +53% | 78Good | $9.3B |
| MCY Mercury General Corporation | 101.79 | 362.23 | +72% | 82Prime | $5.6B |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | 238.69 | 218.24 | -9% | 69Good | $11.0B |
| RLI RLI Corp. | 57.63 | 80.12 | +28% | 83Prime | $5.3B |
| HGTY Hagerty, Inc. | 15.30 | 17.27 | +11% | 70Good | $5.3B |
| SIGIP Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 15.14 | 104.89 | +86% | 39No options | $5.1B |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 86.21 | 221.49 | +61% | 85Prime | $5.1B |
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | 145.73 | 182.51 | +20% | 67Good | $12.1B |
| CNA CNA Financial Corporation | 47.31 | 105.66 | +55% | 87Prime | $12.8B |
| AIZ Assurant, Inc. | 281.87 | 513.45 | +45% | 87Prime | $13.9B |
| AIZN Assurant, Inc. 5.25% Subordinat | 17.18 | 154.79 | +89% | 39No options | $14.0B |
⚖ Compare THG with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about THG
Is THG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 226.17 the stock is 60% below the average fair value of 567.49 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of THG and what does it mean?
THG scores 79 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for THG?
567.49 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does THG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 186 listed contracts with 324 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 29% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.