Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol THG · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · Blend
Is THG undervalued?
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG) closed at 249.93 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 573.77, which puts the price 56% below it. 5 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
There is a wide gap between DDM (55.91) and Payback Time (1,387.86). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for THG, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 59, growth score 65, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for THG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 684.91 | +174% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 218.91 | -12% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 347.47 | +39% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 86.15 | -66% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 1,318.52 | +428% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 824.94 | +230% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 1,387.86 | +455% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 55.91 | -78% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 239.30 | -4% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -186.93 | -175% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 229.60 | -8% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter with room to spare. On durability THG scores 7.2/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 13.8%, ROE 18.5%, ROA 3.9% - with debt at 0.34 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 14.2%.
The dividend yield is 1.52% at a payout ratio of 18%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Personal Lines 40%, Core Commercial Lines 37%, Specialty Lines 23% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 6/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.2 / 10 | ROE | 18.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.34 | ROA | 3.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 14.2% | Payout ratio | 18% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 6 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 75: Good
With a Wheel Score of 75 - the Good band - The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. passes all 9 Wheel Trade Filters. How it ranks: value strong, premium fair, moat good, health good, red flags good, option trading weak, stability good. Option trading (weak) is the part keeping it out of the Prime band.
Implied volatility is 27% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. Chain open interest is thin - 1,278 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 314k shares a day on a market cap of $8.6B, with a beta of 0.28 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that good.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 56% below fair value | |
| Premium | Fair | implied volatility 27% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 7.2/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 87/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 408 contracts a day, 1,278 open interest | |
| Stability | Good | beta 0.28, $8.6B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 2 Feb 2027, 89 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | 391.73 | 618.66 | +37% | 82Good | $8.8B |
| ORI Old Republic International Corporation | 39.96 | 56.77 | +30% | 39Weak | $9.6B |
| HGTY Hagerty, Inc. | 18.71 | 24.70 | +24% | 43Weak | $6.4B |
| RLI RLI Corp. | 68.91 | 77.16 | +11% | 36Weak | $6.3B |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 103.20 | 220.39 | +53% | 43Weak | $6.1B |
| SIGIP Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 14.99 | 101.31 | +85% | 37No options | $5.9B |
| AFG American Financial Group, Inc. | 154.77 | 185.90 | +17% | 38Weak | $12.8B |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | 279.96 | 237.17 | -18% | 42Weak | $12.9B |
| CNA CNA Financial Corporation | 48.02 | 113.38 | +58% | 53Fair | $13.0B |
| MCY Mercury General Corporation | 88.93 | 289.08 | +69% | 78Good | $4.9B |
| AIZN Assurant, Inc. 5.25% Subordinat | 16.91 | 153.03 | +89% | 29No options | $15.2B |
| AIZ Assurant, Inc. | 308.52 | 518.65 | +41% | 48Weak | $15.2B |
⚖ Compare THG with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about THG
Is THG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 249.93 the stock is 56% below the average fair value of 573.77 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of THG and what does it mean?
THG scores 75 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for THG?
573.77 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 2 Feb 2027, 89 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does THG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 60 listed contracts with 1,278 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 27% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.