Stock fact sheet · data as of
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers · Luxembourg · High Yield Income
Is AMBP undervalued?
AMBP closed at 4.67 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 5.01 - 6.8% below fair value, which our screens read as "fairly priced". 3 of 8 models are above the current price. There is no discount to lean on here, so the margin of safety is not the reason to look at the stock.
The 8 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 0.2008 while DCF gives 14.31. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files AMBP under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for AMBP
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 14.31 | +207% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | 2.55 | -45% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 1.01 | -78% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.2008 | -96% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 12.06 | +158% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 3.29 | -30% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 5.89 | +26% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 0.7622 | -84% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -7.55 | -262% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 4.85 | +4% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - AMBP passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.1 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.3%, ROE -1.6%, ROA 0.2% - with debt at -6.47 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 10.6%.
The dividend yield is high at 8.57% (payout ratio 610%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 3/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 15 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 0.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.1 / 10 | ROE | -1.6% |
| Debt / equity | -6.47 | ROA | 0.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 10.6% | Payout ratio | 610% |
| Institutions | 3 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 69: Good
AMBP scores 69 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 15/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (5/15), the option premium on offer (18/20) and how easily the stock trades (18/20). Moat (5/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 67% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (18 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 11,647 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 3.5M shares a day on a market cap of $2.8B, with a beta of 0.53 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 15 / 25 | 7% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.1/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 67% | |
| Stability | 18 / 20 | 3.5M shares/day, $2.8B cap, beta 0.53 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reports earnings on 22 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Packaging & Containers
The 12 companies below are the closest to Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. by market cap within the Packaging & Containers industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company | 8.73 | 16.62 | +47% | 81Prime | $2.6B |
| GEF Greif, Inc. | 80.04 | 124.10 | +36% | 77Good | $3.7B |
| SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc. | 35.81 | 50.05 | +28% | 81Prime | $3.8B |
| SON Sonoco Products Company | 49.12 | 91.55 | +46% | 78Good | $4.9B |
| TRS TriMas Corporation | 38.43 | 370.13 | +90% | 78Good | $1.4B |
| MYE Myers Industries, Inc. | 31.03 | 24.69 | -26% | 52Fair | $1.2B |
| KRT Karat Packaging Inc. | 54.21 | 33.93 | -60% | 36No options | $1.1B |
| OI O-I Glass, Inc. | 5.92 | 21.36 | +72% | 45Weak | $910M |
| CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. | 113.68 | 155.17 | +27% | 82Prime | $12.4B |
| AVY Avery Dennison Corporation | 175.88 | 155.64 | -13% | 64Fair | $13.3B |
| BALL Ball Corporation | 62.80 | 78.56 | +20% | 84Prime | $16.6B |
| AMCR Amcor plc | 43.74 | 46.21 | +5% | 73Good | $20.2B |
⚖ Compare AMBP with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AMBP
Is AMBP undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 4.67 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 5.01 (6.8% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of AMBP and what does it mean?
AMBP scores 69 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AMBP?
5.01 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 22 Oct 2026 (before the open), 6 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AMBP have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 32 listed contracts with 11,647 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 67% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.