Stock fact sheet · data as of
Greif, Inc. (GEF): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers · United States · Defensive
Is GEF undervalued?
At 80.04 (close of 16 Oct 2026), GEF trades 36% below the GLS average fair value of 124.10. That average comes from 8 models run on the latest filings, and 5 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Greif, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
The 8 models disagree widely: DDM gives 34.73 while Graham Growth gives 313.34. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files GEF under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for GEF
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 72.18 | -10% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 143.30 | +79% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 313.34 | +291% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 86.65 | +8% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 50.68 | -37% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 99.57 | +24% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 34.73 | -57% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 192.36 | +140% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -22.91 | -129% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 84.00 | +5% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - GEF passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.9 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 18.7%, ROE 28.8%, ROA 14.6% - with debt at 0.54 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 2.95% at a payout ratio of 11%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Durable Metal Solutions 36%, Customized Polymer Solutions 33%, Sustainable Fiber Solutions 31% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 18.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.9 / 10 | ROE | 28.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.54 | ROA | 14.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -6.2% | Payout ratio | 11% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 77: Good
GEF scores 77 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (11/20), the GLS moat (7/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (14/20). Moat (7/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 2,330 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 374k shares a day on a market cap of $3.7B, with a beta of 0.79 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 36% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.9/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 36% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 374k shares/day, $3.7B cap, beta 0.79 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Packaging & Containers
The 12 companies below are the closest to Greif, Inc. by market cap within the Packaging & Containers industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc. | 35.81 | 50.05 | +28% | 81Prime | $3.8B |
| SON Sonoco Products Company | 49.12 | 91.55 | +46% | 78Good | $4.9B |
| AMBP Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. | 4.67 | 5.01 | +7% | 69Good | $2.8B |
| GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company | 8.73 | 16.62 | +47% | 81Prime | $2.6B |
| TRS TriMas Corporation | 38.43 | 370.13 | +90% | 78Good | $1.4B |
| MYE Myers Industries, Inc. | 31.03 | 24.69 | -26% | 52Fair | $1.2B |
| CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. | 113.68 | 155.17 | +27% | 82Prime | $12.4B |
| KRT Karat Packaging Inc. | 54.21 | 33.93 | -60% | 36No options | $1.1B |
| AVY Avery Dennison Corporation | 175.88 | 155.64 | -13% | 64Fair | $13.3B |
| OI O-I Glass, Inc. | 5.92 | 21.36 | +72% | 45Weak | $910M |
| BALL Ball Corporation | 62.80 | 78.56 | +20% | 84Prime | $16.6B |
| AMCR Amcor plc | 43.74 | 46.21 | +5% | 73Good | $20.2B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about GEF
Is GEF undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 80.04 the stock is 36% below the average fair value of 124.10 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of GEF and what does it mean?
GEF scores 77 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for GEF?
124.10 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Greif, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does GEF have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 166 listed contracts with 2,330 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 36% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.