Stock fact sheet · data as of
Ball Corporation (BALL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers · United States · High Growth
Is BALL undervalued?
Ball Corporation (BALL) closed at 62.80 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 78.56, so the price sits 20% below it. 4 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
There is a wide gap between DDM (11.77) and GLS Growth (217.90). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files BALL under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for BALL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 24.73 | -61% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 41.61 | -34% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 111.45 | +77% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 41.86 | -33% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 217.90 | +247% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 94.98 | +51% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 123.21 | +96% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 11.77 | -81% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 39.55 | -37% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -30.18 | -148% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 71.80 | +14% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Ball Corporation scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability BALL scores 5.8/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.3%, ROE 16.8%, ROA 4.7% - with debt at 1.29 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.0%.
The dividend yield is 1.27% with a payout ratio of 23% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Metal Beverage Packaging Americas and A… 52%, Metal Beverage Packaging Europe 32%, Metal Food and Household Products Packa… 15% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 13 Oct 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 7.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.8 / 10 | ROE | 16.8% |
| Debt / equity | 1.29 | ROA | 4.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.0% | Payout ratio | 23% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 84: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 84, Ball Corporation sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 21/25, Health 18/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 17/20, Stability 20/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 32% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (17 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 18,684 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 3.2M shares a day on a market cap of $16.6B, with a beta of 0.96; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 21 / 25 | 20% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 5.8/10 | |
| Premium | 17 / 20 | implied volatility 32% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 3.2M shares/day, $16.6B cap, beta 0.96 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Packaging & Containers
The 12 companies below are the closest to Ball Corporation by market cap within the Packaging & Containers industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMCR Amcor plc | 43.74 | 46.21 | +5% | 73Good | $20.2B |
| PKG Packaging Corporation of America | 229.96 | 150.88 | -52% | 56Fair | $20.5B |
| AVY Avery Dennison Corporation | 175.88 | 155.64 | -13% | 64Fair | $13.3B |
| SW Smurfit Westrock plc | 40.75 | 35.10 | -16% | 67Good | $21.4B |
| CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. | 113.68 | 155.17 | +27% | 82Prime | $12.4B |
| SON Sonoco Products Company | 49.12 | 91.55 | +46% | 78Good | $4.9B |
| SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc. | 35.81 | 50.05 | +28% | 81Prime | $3.8B |
| GEF Greif, Inc. | 80.04 | 124.10 | +36% | 77Good | $3.7B |
| AMBP Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. | 4.67 | 5.01 | +7% | 69Good | $2.8B |
| GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company | 8.73 | 16.62 | +47% | 81Prime | $2.6B |
| TRS TriMas Corporation | 38.43 | 370.13 | +90% | 78Good | $1.4B |
| MYE Myers Industries, Inc. | 31.03 | 24.69 | -26% | 52Fair | $1.2B |
⚖ Compare BALL with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about BALL
Is BALL undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 62.80 the stock trades 20% below the average fair value of 78.56 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of BALL and what does it mean?
BALL scores 84 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for BALL?
78.56 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Ball Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does BALL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 412 listed contracts with 18,684 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 32% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.