Stock fact sheet · data as of
Amcor plc (AMCR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers · Switzerland · High Yield Income
Is AMCR undervalued?
Amcor plc (AMCR) closed at 43.74 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 46.21 (5.3% below fair value). 3 of the 9 models that produced a number sit above the price, 6 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (7.66) and DCF (110.34). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files AMCR under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for AMCR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 110.34 | +152% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 37.05 | -15% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 35.16 | -20% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 7.66 | -82% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 8.47 | -81% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 84.36 | +93% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 67.47 | +54% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 38.36 | -12% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 26.98 | -38% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -34.54 | -179% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 48.38 | +11% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Amcor plc scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 3.6/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.1%, ROE 9.4%, ROA 3.0% - with debt at 1.28 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 8.0%.
The dividend yield is high at 6.04% (payout ratio 107%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Flexibles 54%, Rigid Packaging 46% (quarter Q4 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 9/10 and Congressional trading 6/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 4.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.6 / 10 | ROE | 9.4% |
| Debt / equity | 1.28 | ROA | 3.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 8.0% | Payout ratio | 107% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 9 · 6 / 10 |
Wheel Score 73: Good
With a Wheel Score of 73 - the Good band - Amcor plc clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 15/25, Health 16/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 17/20, Stability 20/20; Moat (5/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 32% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (17 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 33,423 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 3.4M shares a day on a market cap of $20.2B, with a beta of 0.58 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 15 / 25 | 5% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.6/10 | |
| Premium | 17 / 20 | implied volatility 32% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 3.4M shares/day, $20.2B cap, beta 0.58 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Packaging & Containers
The 12 companies below are the closest to Amcor plc by market cap within the Packaging & Containers industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PKG Packaging Corporation of America | 229.96 | 150.88 | -52% | 56Fair | $20.5B |
| SW Smurfit Westrock plc | 40.75 | 35.10 | -16% | 67Good | $21.4B |
| BALL Ball Corporation | 62.80 | 78.56 | +20% | 84Prime | $16.6B |
| AVY Avery Dennison Corporation | 175.88 | 155.64 | -13% | 64Fair | $13.3B |
| CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. | 113.68 | 155.17 | +27% | 82Prime | $12.4B |
| SON Sonoco Products Company | 49.12 | 91.55 | +46% | 78Good | $4.9B |
| SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc. | 35.81 | 50.05 | +28% | 81Prime | $3.8B |
| GEF Greif, Inc. | 80.04 | 124.10 | +36% | 77Good | $3.7B |
| AMBP Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. | 4.67 | 5.01 | +7% | 69Good | $2.8B |
| GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company | 8.73 | 16.62 | +47% | 81Prime | $2.6B |
| TRS TriMas Corporation | 38.43 | 370.13 | +90% | 78Good | $1.4B |
| MYE Myers Industries, Inc. | 31.03 | 24.69 | -26% | 52Fair | $1.2B |
⚖ Compare AMCR with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AMCR
Is AMCR undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 43.74 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 46.21 (5.3% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of AMCR and what does it mean?
AMCR scores 73 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AMCR?
46.21 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Amcor plc report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AMCR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 300 listed contracts with 33,423 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 32% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.