Stock fact sheet · data as of
Accelerant Holdings (ARX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · Cayman Islands · Speculative / Distressed
Is ARX undervalued?
Accelerant Holdings (ARX) closed at 19.76 on 16 Oct 2026, 232% above the GLS average fair value of 5.94. 1 of the 1 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The average is built from just 1 models (10 Cap) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files ARX under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for ARX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 5.94 | -70% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.9545 | -95% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 17.75 | -10% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Accelerant Holdings scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 3.7/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -165.3%, ROE -194.1%, ROA -16.4% - with debt at 0.17 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.2%.
Accelerant Holdings pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Underwriting 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 4/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | -165.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.7 / 10 | ROE | -194.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.17 | ROA | -16.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.2% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 4 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 45 Accelerant Holdings sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 17/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 37% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 2,987 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 990k shares a day on a market cap of $4.3B, with a beta of -0.40 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -232% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 3.7/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 37% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 990k shares/day, $4.3B cap, beta -0.40 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 11 Nov 2026 (before the open), 26 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to Accelerant Holdings by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | 136.75 | 236.87 | +42% | 84Prime | $3.6B |
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| SIGIP Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 15.14 | 104.89 | +86% | 39No options | $5.1B |
| LMND Lemonade, Inc. | 45.86 | 4.31 | -963% | 43Weak | $3.5B |
| HGTY Hagerty, Inc. | 15.30 | 17.27 | +11% | 70Good | $5.3B |
| RLI RLI Corp. | 57.63 | 80.12 | +28% | 83Prime | $5.3B |
| MCY Mercury General Corporation | 101.79 | 362.23 | +72% | 82Prime | $5.6B |
| AFSIN AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 13.98 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $3.1B |
| AFSIP AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 14.17 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $3.0B |
| AFSIM AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 15.30 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $3.0B |
| AFFT AmTrust Financial Services Inc 7.5 % Notes 2015-15.9.55 | 15.30 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $3.0B |
| SLDE Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. Common Stock | 25.67 | 94.18 | +73% | 93Prime | $3.0B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ARX
Is ARX undervalued right now?
No: at 19.76 the stock trades 232% above the GLS average fair value of 5.94 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of ARX and what does it mean?
ARX scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ARX?
5.94 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Accelerant Holdings report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 11 Nov 2026 (before the open), 26 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ARX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 136 listed contracts with 2,987 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 37% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.