Stock fact sheet · data as of
Accelerant Holdings (ARX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol ARX · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · Cayman Islands · Class A common stock · Speculative
ARX is Accelerant Holdings's Class A common stock. The classes own the same business, share the same earnings report and trade within a few cents of each other; what differs is mainly the vote each share carries - the company's annual report sets out the voting rights.
Is ARX undervalued?
Accelerant Holdings (ARX) closed at 19.85 on 5 Nov 2026, 234% above the GLS average fair value of 5.94. 1 of the 1 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The average is built from just 1 models (10 Cap) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files ARX under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for ARX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 5.94 | -70% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.9545 | -95% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 17.75 | -11% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Accelerant Holdings scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 2.6/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -165.3%, ROE -194.1%, ROA -16.4% - with debt at 0.17 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.2%.
Accelerant Holdings pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Underwriting 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 4/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | -165.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.6 / 10 | ROE | -194.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.17 | ROA | -16.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.2% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 4 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 33: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 33 Accelerant Holdings sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 234% above our fair value; Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 43% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 1,795 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 3.9M shares a day on a market cap of $4.3B, with a beta of -0.40 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 234% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 234% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 43% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 2.6/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 87/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 410 contracts a day, 1,795 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta -0.40, $4.3B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Accelerant Holdings reports earnings on 12 Nov 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to Accelerant Holdings by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | 144.04 | 246.53 | +42% | 49Weak | $3.8B |
| MCY Mercury General Corporation | 88.93 | 289.08 | +69% | 78Good | $4.9B |
| LMND Lemonade, Inc. | 45.90 | 4.31 | -964% | 23Weak | $3.6B |
| SLDE Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. Common Stock | 27.28 | 96.94 | +72% | 82Good | $3.2B |
| SIGIP Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 14.99 | 101.31 | +85% | 37No options | $5.9B |
| AFSIM AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 14.70 | 1,681,551.22 | +100% | 33No options | $3.1B |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 103.20 | 220.39 | +53% | 43Weak | $6.1B |
| AFFS AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 15.20 | 1,681,551.45 | +100% | 34No options | $3.0B |
| AFFT AmTrust Financial Services Inc 7.5 % Notes 2015-15.9.55 | 15.30 | 1,681,551.52 | +100% | 26No options | $3.0B |
| AFSIC AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 15.00 | 1,681,551.45 | +100% | 33No options | $3.0B |
| AFSIP AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 14.05 | 1,681,551.15 | +100% | 32No options | $3.0B |
| RLI RLI Corp. | 68.91 | 77.16 | +11% | 36Weak | $6.3B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ARX
What kind of share is ARX?
ARX is Accelerant Holdings's Class A common stock. The classes own the same business, share the same earnings report and trade within a few cents of each other; what differs is mainly the vote each share carries - the company's annual report sets out the voting rights.
Is ARX undervalued right now?
No: at 19.85 the stock trades 234% above the GLS average fair value of 5.94 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of ARX and what does it mean?
ARX scores 33 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 3. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for ARX?
5.94 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Accelerant Holdings report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 12 Nov 2026 (before the open), 7 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ARX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 36 listed contracts with 1,795 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 43% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.