Stock fact sheet · data as of
Mercury General Corporation (MCY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · High Growth
Is MCY undervalued?
MCY has a margin of safety of 72%: the stock closed at 101.79 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 362.23. 6 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between DDM (18.69) and GLS Growth (1,035.50). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files MCY under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for MCY
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 89.71 | -12% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 139.59 | +37% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 272.89 | +168% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 67.66 | -34% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 1,035.50 | +917% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 544.59 | +435% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 903.47 | +788% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 18.69 | -82% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 187.94 | +85% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -80.81 | -179% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 90.00 | -12% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Mercury General Corporation scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability MCY scores 6.6/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 18.0%, ROE 22.4%, ROA 5.7% - with debt at 0.24 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 22.4%.
The dividend yield is 1.25% with a payout ratio of 8% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business.
Institutional ownership scores 6/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 18.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.6 / 10 | ROE | 22.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.24 | ROA | 5.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 22.4% | Payout ratio | 8% |
| Institutions | 6 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 82: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 82, Mercury General Corporation sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 13/20, Moat 10/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 14/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 37% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 12,900 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 282k shares a day on a market cap of $5.6B, with a beta of 0.91; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 72% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.6/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 37% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 282k shares/day, $5.6B cap, beta 0.91 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to Mercury General Corporation by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RLI RLI Corp. | 57.63 | 80.12 | +28% | 83Prime | $5.3B |
| HGTY Hagerty, Inc. | 15.30 | 17.27 | +11% | 70Good | $5.3B |
| SIGIP Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 15.14 | 104.89 | +86% | 39No options | $5.1B |
| SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc. | 86.21 | 221.49 | +61% | 85Prime | $5.1B |
| ARX Accelerant Holdings | 19.76 | 5.94 | -232% | 45Weak | $4.3B |
| THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 226.17 | 567.49 | +60% | 79Good | $7.9B |
| KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | 357.49 | 648.69 | +45% | 85Prime | $8.1B |
| PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | 136.75 | 236.87 | +42% | 84Prime | $3.6B |
| LMND Lemonade, Inc. | 45.86 | 4.31 | -963% | 43Weak | $3.5B |
| ORI Old Republic International Corporation | 38.67 | 81.52 | +53% | 78Good | $9.3B |
| AFSIN AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 13.98 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $3.1B |
| AFSIP AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 14.17 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $3.0B |
⚖ Compare MCY with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MCY
Is MCY undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 101.79 the stock is 72% below the average fair value of 362.23 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of MCY and what does it mean?
MCY scores 82 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MCY?
362.23 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Mercury General Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MCY have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 258 listed contracts with 12,900 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 37% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.