Stock fact sheet · data as of
BHP Group Limited (BHP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Industrial Materials · Australia · ADR · High Yield Income
Is BHP undervalued?
BHP closed at 82.90 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 50.57. Only 1 of the 9 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
The 9 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 0.9920 while 10 Cap gives 169.03. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files BHP under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for BHP
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 57.18 | -31% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 20.89 | -75% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 33.88 | -59% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 0.9920 | -99% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 3.15 | -96% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 169.03 | +104% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 77.85 | -6% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 49.44 | -40% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 42.71 | -48% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -13.39 | -116% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 95.00 | +15% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - BHP passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 5.3 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 13.0%, ROE 19.9%, ROA 8.1% - with debt at 0.53 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.5%.
The dividend yield is high at 4.03% (payout ratio 67%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Copper 49%, Iron Ore 41%, Coal 10% (fiscal year FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 13.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.3 / 10 | ROE | 19.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.53 | ROA | 8.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.5% | Payout ratio | 67% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 58: Fair
BHP scores 58 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 19/20, Stability 20/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 34% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (19 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 153,722 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.8M shares a day on a market cap of $210.7B, with a beta of 0.85; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -64% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.3/10 | |
| Premium | 19 / 20 | implied volatility 34% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.8M shares/day, $210.7B cap, beta 0.85 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for BHP in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Industrial Materials
The 12 companies below are the closest to BHP Group Limited by market cap within the Industrial Materials industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIO Rio Tinto Group | 91.25 | 86.07 | -6% | 67Good | $148.4B |
| VALE Vale S.A. | 13.21 | 16.18 | +18% | 80Prime | $56.2B |
| MP MP Materials Corp. | 41.61 | - | - | 45Weak | $7.4B |
| MTRN Materion Corporation | 252.16 | 64.93 | -288% | 50Fair | $5.3B |
| SKE Skeena Resources Limited | 29.97 | 0.3880 | -7624% | 39Weak | $3.8B |
| ALM Almonty Industries Inc. | 10.10 | 3.07 | -229% | 41Weak | $2.9B |
| NEXA Nexa Resources S.A. | 12.48 | 26.07 | +52% | 77Good | $1.7B |
| USAR USA Rare Earth Inc | 10.32 | 3.78 | -173% | 36Weak | $1.4B |
| USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation | 3.70 | - | - | 45Weak | $1.2B |
| VZLA Vizsla Silver Corp. | 3.17 | 0.5382 | -489% | 41Weak | $1.1B |
| CRML Critical Metals Corp. | 6.95 | 0.1545 | -4399% | 33Weak | $1.0B |
| EMAT Evolution Metals & Technologies Corp. Common Stock | 1.54 | - | - | 36No options | $966M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about BHP
Is BHP undervalued right now?
No: at 82.90 the stock trades 64% above the GLS average fair value of 50.57 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of BHP and what does it mean?
BHP scores 58 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for BHP?
50.57 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does BHP Group Limited report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for BHP in our calendar as of 16 Oct 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does BHP have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 664 listed contracts with 153,722 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 34% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.