Stock fact sheet · data as of
Rio Tinto Group (RIO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Industrial Materials · United Kingdom · ADR · High Yield Income
Is RIO undervalued?
At 91.25 (close of 16 Oct 2026), RIO trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 86.07 (6.0% above fair value). 9 models produced a value and they split 3 above the price to 6 below. A stock priced at fair value earns about half of the Wheel Score's Value points; the rest of the score comes from health, moat, premium and stability.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 3.70 while 10 Cap gives 170.11. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files RIO under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for RIO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 152.24 | +67% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 82.23 | -10% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 123.87 | +36% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 30.71 | -66% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 3.70 | -96% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 170.11 | +86% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 58.53 | -36% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 67.97 | -26% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 85.31 | -7% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -24.29 | -127% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 103.13 | +13% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: RIO passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is 5.4 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 11.7%, ROE 16.1%, ROA 7.8% - with debt at 0.38 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.0%.
The dividend yield is high at 5.23% (payout ratio 53%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Iron ore 50%, Aluminium, alumina and bauxite 26%, Copper 11% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 11.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.4 / 10 | ROE | 16.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.38 | ROA | 7.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.0% | Payout ratio | 53% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 67: Good
RIO scores 67 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 10/25), Piotroski health (9/20), the GLS moat (8/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20). Value (10/25) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 39% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 127,431 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.1M shares a day on a market cap of $148.4B, with a beta of 0.66 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 10 / 25 | -6% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 39% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.1M shares/day, $148.4B cap, beta 0.66 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for RIO in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Industrial Materials
The 12 companies below are the closest to Rio Tinto Group by market cap within the Industrial Materials industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHP BHP Group Limited | 82.90 | 50.57 | -64% | 58Fair | $210.7B |
| VALE Vale S.A. | 13.21 | 16.18 | +18% | 80Prime | $56.2B |
| MP MP Materials Corp. | 41.61 | - | - | 45Weak | $7.4B |
| MTRN Materion Corporation | 252.16 | 64.93 | -288% | 50Fair | $5.3B |
| SKE Skeena Resources Limited | 29.97 | 0.3880 | -7624% | 39Weak | $3.8B |
| ALM Almonty Industries Inc. | 10.10 | 3.07 | -229% | 41Weak | $2.9B |
| NEXA Nexa Resources S.A. | 12.48 | 26.07 | +52% | 77Good | $1.7B |
| USAR USA Rare Earth Inc | 10.32 | 3.78 | -173% | 36Weak | $1.4B |
| USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation | 3.70 | - | - | 45Weak | $1.2B |
| VZLA Vizsla Silver Corp. | 3.17 | 0.5382 | -489% | 41Weak | $1.1B |
| CRML Critical Metals Corp. | 6.95 | 0.1545 | -4399% | 33Weak | $1.0B |
| EMAT Evolution Metals & Technologies Corp. Common Stock | 1.54 | - | - | 36No options | $966M |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about RIO
Is RIO undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 91.25 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 86.07 (6.0% above fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of RIO and what does it mean?
RIO scores 67 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for RIO?
86.07 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Rio Tinto Group report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for RIO in our calendar as of 16 Oct 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does RIO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 582 listed contracts with 127,431 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 39% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.