Stock fact sheet · data as of
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Canada · Value
Is CNQ undervalued?
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) closed at 51.95 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 56.90 (8.7% below fair value). 5 of the 9 models that produced a number sit above the price, 4 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 0.8469 while 10 Cap gives 138.74. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CNQ under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for CNQ
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 81.86 | +58% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 53.54 | +3% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 64.29 | +24% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 15.94 | -69% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.8469 | -98% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 138.74 | +167% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 76.39 | +47% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 36.23 | -30% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 44.27 | -15% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -19.29 | -137% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 50.81 | -2% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health CNQ scores 9/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.7 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 16.9%, ROE 24.4%, ROA 11.8% - with debt at 0.44 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.4%.
The dividend yield is 3.34% at a payout ratio of 42%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Oil And Gas1 100% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 9 / 9 | ROIC | 16.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.7 / 10 | ROE | 24.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.44 | ROA | 11.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.4% | Payout ratio | 42% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 81: Prime
CNQ scores 81 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 16/25), Piotroski health (20/20), the GLS moat (6/15), the option premium on offer (19/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20).
Implied volatility is 34% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (19 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 138,117 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 4.2M shares a day on a market cap of $107.1B, with a beta of 0.94; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 16 / 25 | 9% margin of safety | |
| Health | 20 / 20 | Piotroski 9/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 3.7/10 | |
| Premium | 19 / 20 | implied volatility 34% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 4.2M shares/day, $107.1B cap, beta 0.94 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Canadian Natural Resources Limited by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EOG EOG Resources, Inc. | 152.62 | 170.03 | +10% | 82Prime | $80.1B |
| COP ConocoPhillips | 141.73 | 128.22 | -11% | 71Good | $170.3B |
| OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation | 61.41 | 81.04 | +24% | 80Prime | $61.4B |
| FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | 195.60 | 142.92 | -37% | 63Fair | $54.8B |
| DVN Devon Energy Corporation | 49.24 | 46.63 | -6% | 66Good | $54.2B |
| WDS Woodside Energy Group Ltd | 23.06 | 21.50 | -7% | 59Fair | $43.7B |
| EQT EQT Corporation | 52.45 | 91.21 | +42% | 84Prime | $32.8B |
| TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 354.57 | 144.83 | -145% | 61Fair | $24.5B |
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation | 90.80 | 246.60 | +63% | 85Prime | $21.0B |
| PR Permian Resources Corporation | 24.06 | 19.89 | -21% | 65Good | $20.1B |
| OVV Ovintiv Inc. | 66.13 | 77.05 | +14% | 80Prime | $18.3B |
| APA APA Corporation | 47.23 | 104.73 | +55% | 87Prime | $16.5B |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CNQ
Is CNQ undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 51.95 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 56.90 (8.7% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of CNQ and what does it mean?
CNQ scores 81 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CNQ?
56.90 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Canadian Natural Resources Limited report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CNQ have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 672 listed contracts with 138,117 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 34% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.