Stock fact sheet · data as of
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · United States · Blend
Is TPL undervalued?
TPL closed at 354.57 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 144.83. Only 0 of the 9 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 34.33 while DCF gives 291.02. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files TPL under Blend.
Nine valuation models for TPL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 291.02 | -18% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 65.44 | -82% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 233.99 | -34% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 86.29 | -76% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 108.68 | -69% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 200.78 | -43% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 195.70 | -45% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 34.33 | -90% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 87.22 | -75% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 2.25 | -99% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 639.00 | +80% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - TPL passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 8.1 out of 10, built from ten years of revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, share count and returns on capital scored for consistency - a high reading that points to a durable business.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 32.3%, ROE 33.0%, ROA 29.7% - with debt at 0.02 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.2%.
The dividend yield is 0.66% with a payout ratio of 29% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Oil And Gas Royalties 59%, Water Sales 16%, Produced Water Royalties 15% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.1 / 10 | ROE | 33.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.02 | ROA | 29.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.2% | Payout ratio | 29% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 61: Fair
TPL scores 61 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 12/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 15/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 46% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 27,400 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 328k shares a day on a market cap of $24.5B, with a beta of 0.59 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -145% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 12 / 15 | moat 8.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 46% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 328k shares/day, $24.5B cap, beta 0.59 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Texas Pacific Land Corporation by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation | 90.80 | 246.60 | +63% | 85Prime | $21.0B |
| PR Permian Resources Corporation | 24.06 | 19.89 | -21% | 65Good | $20.1B |
| OVV Ovintiv Inc. | 66.13 | 77.05 | +14% | 80Prime | $18.3B |
| EQT EQT Corporation | 52.45 | 91.21 | +42% | 84Prime | $32.8B |
| APA APA Corporation | 47.23 | 104.73 | +55% | 87Prime | $16.5B |
| WDS Woodside Energy Group Ltd | 23.06 | 21.50 | -7% | 59Fair | $43.7B |
| AR Antero Resources Corporation | 36.44 | 58.53 | +38% | 86Prime | $11.2B |
| DVN Devon Energy Corporation | 49.24 | 46.63 | -6% | 66Good | $54.2B |
| FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | 195.60 | 142.92 | -37% | 63Fair | $54.8B |
| RRC Range Resources Corporation | 41.84 | 52.96 | +21% | 87Prime | $9.8B |
| OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation | 61.41 | 81.04 | +24% | 80Prime | $61.4B |
| SM SM Energy Company | 38.22 | 36.18 | -6% | 67Good | $9.1B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TPL
Is TPL undervalued right now?
No: at 354.57 the stock trades 145% above the GLS average fair value of 144.83 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of TPL and what does it mean?
TPL scores 61 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TPL?
144.83 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Texas Pacific Land Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TPL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 386 listed contracts with 27,400 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 46% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.