Stock fact sheet · data as of
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol EXE · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · United States · Value
Is EXE undervalued?
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) closed at 87.31 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 248.51, which puts the price 65% below it. 7 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 33.84 while DCF gives 777.30. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, EXE is clearly cheaper than it is fast-growing, so the nightly engine files it under Value (value score 81, growth score 58, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for EXE
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 777.30 | +790% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 150.09 | +72% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 397.65 | +355% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 152.82 | +75% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 34.80 | -60% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 354.78 | +306% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 203.20 | +133% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 33.84 | -61% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 132.10 | +51% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -29.41 | -134% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 122.36 | +40% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health EXE scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.5 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.7%, ROE 9.8%, ROA 6.4% - with debt at 0.27 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 12.2%.
The dividend yield is 2.63% at a payout ratio of 20%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Natural Gas, Gathering, Transportation,… 42%, Oil and Gas 29%, Natural Gas Sales 24% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 7.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.5 / 10 | ROE | 9.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.27 | ROA | 6.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 12.2% | Payout ratio | 20% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 87: Prime
EXE scores 87 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (85 and above): it passes all 9 Wheel Trade Filters and ranks strongly on value strong, premium strong, moat weak, health strong, red flags strong, option trading strong, stability good. Prime stocks stand out among those that pass - the Sunday Scan is the top 10 by Wheel Score.
Implied volatility is 35% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. The option chain is deep: 127,130 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 4.6M shares a day on a market cap of $20.2B, with a beta of 0.32 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that good.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 65% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 35% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 2.5/10 | |
| Health | Strong | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 90/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 45,052 contracts a day, 127,130 open interest | |
| Stability | Good | beta 0.32, $20.2B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for EXE in the nightly calendar. The shares go ex-dividend on 12 Nov 2026 (0.5750 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Expand Energy Corporation by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 287.65 | 140.14 | -105% | 43Weak | $19.8B |
| PR Permian Resources Corporation | 22.43 | 26.28 | +15% | 46Weak | $18.8B |
| OVV Ovintiv Inc. | 62.70 | 89.37 | +30% | 83Good | $17.3B |
| APA APA Corporation | 44.49 | 105.84 | +58% | 92Prime | $15.6B |
| EQT EQT Corporation | 52.54 | 89.97 | +42% | 54Fair | $32.9B |
| RRC Range Resources Corporation | 52.10 | 47.51 | -10% | 44Weak | $12.2B |
| AR Antero Resources Corporation | 37.43 | 57.47 | +35% | 82Good | $11.5B |
| WDS Woodside Energy Group Ltd | 21.51 | 23.39 | +8% | 36Weak | $40.8B |
| DVN Devon Energy Corporation | 44.12 | 47.13 | +6% | 46Weak | $48.5B |
| FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | 182.88 | 167.65 | -9% | 44Weak | $51.2B |
| SM SM Energy Company | 31.06 | 36.65 | +15% | 78Good | $7.4B |
| CHRD Chord Energy Corporation | 132.33 | 276.90 | +52% | 82Good | $7.2B |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about EXE
Is EXE undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 87.31 the stock is 65% below the average fair value of 248.51 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of EXE and what does it mean?
EXE scores 87 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for EXE?
248.51 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Expand Energy Corporation report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for EXE in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does EXE have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 548 listed contracts with 127,130 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 35% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.