Expand Energy Corporation (EXE): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is EXE undervalued?

Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) closed at 90.80 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 246.60, which puts the price 63% below it. 7 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.

The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 33.84 while DCF gives 740.44. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files EXE under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.

Nine valuation models for EXE

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

On financial health EXE scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.6 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.7%, ROE 9.8%, ROA 6.4% - with debt at 0.27 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 12.1%.

The dividend yield is 2.53% at a payout ratio of 28%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Natural Gas 83%, NGL 11%, Oil 6% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 85: Prime

EXE scores 85 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (18/20), the GLS moat (2/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20).

Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 185,587 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 3.0M shares a day on a market cap of $21.0B, with a beta of 0.32 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Expand Energy Corporation reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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