Stock fact sheet · data as of
Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Australia · ADR · High Yield Income
Is WDS undervalued?
Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) closed at 23.06 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 21.50 (7.3% above fair value). 3 of the 8 models that produced a number sit above the price, 5 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
The 8 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 0.2778 while DCF gives 64.79. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files WDS under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for WDS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 64.79 | +181% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 26.34 | +14% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 14.00 | -39% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 0.2778 | -99% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 4.74 | -79% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 27.24 | +18% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 16.62 | -28% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 17.98 | -22% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -9.51 | -141% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 23.21 | +1% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - WDS passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.7 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.5%, ROE 7.6%, ROA 4.1% - with debt at 0.38 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 4.89% (payout ratio 68%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.7 / 10 | ROE | 7.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.38 | ROA | 4.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -1.0% | Payout ratio | 68% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 59: Fair
WDS scores 59 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 9/25, Health 11/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 16/20. Moat (3/15) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 39% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 10,599 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 508k shares a day on a market cap of $43.7B, with a beta of -0.23 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 9 / 25 | -7% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 1.7/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 39% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 508k shares/day, $43.7B cap, beta -0.23 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for WDS in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Woodside Energy Group Ltd by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DVN Devon Energy Corporation | 49.24 | 46.63 | -6% | 66Good | $54.2B |
| FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | 195.60 | 142.92 | -37% | 63Fair | $54.8B |
| EQT EQT Corporation | 52.45 | 91.21 | +42% | 84Prime | $32.8B |
| OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation | 61.41 | 81.04 | +24% | 80Prime | $61.4B |
| TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 354.57 | 144.83 | -145% | 61Fair | $24.5B |
| EOG EOG Resources, Inc. | 152.62 | 170.03 | +10% | 82Prime | $80.1B |
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation | 90.80 | 246.60 | +63% | 85Prime | $21.0B |
| PR Permian Resources Corporation | 24.06 | 19.89 | -21% | 65Good | $20.1B |
| OVV Ovintiv Inc. | 66.13 | 77.05 | +14% | 80Prime | $18.3B |
| CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Limited | 51.95 | 56.90 | +9% | 81Prime | $107.1B |
| APA APA Corporation | 47.23 | 104.73 | +55% | 87Prime | $16.5B |
| COP ConocoPhillips | 141.73 | 128.22 | -11% | 71Good | $170.3B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about WDS
Is WDS undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 23.06 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 21.50 (7.3% above fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of WDS and what does it mean?
WDS scores 59 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for WDS?
21.50 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Woodside Energy Group Ltd report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for WDS in our calendar as of 16 Oct 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does WDS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 90 listed contracts with 10,599 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 39% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.