Stock fact sheet · data as of
APA Corporation (APA): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · United States · Defensive
Is APA undervalued?
At 47.23 (close of 16 Oct 2026), APA trades 55% below the GLS average fair value of 104.73. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 6 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns APA Corporation the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 14.71 while GLS Growth gives 220.63. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files APA under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for APA
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 82.16 | +74% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 46.11 | -2% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 76.64 | +62% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 19.00 | -60% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 220.63 | +367% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 214.72 | +355% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 215.81 | +357% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 14.71 | -69% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 52.79 | +12% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -28.18 | -160% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 46.67 | -1% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health APA scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.1 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 13.2%, ROE 23.5%, ROA 7.5% - with debt at 0.79 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 12.7%.
The dividend yield is 2.12% at a payout ratio of 21%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Oil revenues 77%, Purchased oil and gas 14%, Natural gas liquids revenues 7% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.1 / 10 | ROE | 23.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.79 | ROA | 7.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 12.7% | Payout ratio | 21% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 87: Prime
APA scores 87 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (6/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20).
Implied volatility is 47% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 201,172 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 3.3M shares a day on a market cap of $16.5B, with a beta of 0.37 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 55% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 47% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 3.3M shares/day, $16.5B cap, beta 0.37 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium. The shares go ex-dividend on 22 Oct 2026 (0.2500 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to APA Corporation by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OVV Ovintiv Inc. | 66.13 | 77.05 | +14% | 80Prime | $18.3B |
| PR Permian Resources Corporation | 24.06 | 19.89 | -21% | 65Good | $20.1B |
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation | 90.80 | 246.60 | +63% | 85Prime | $21.0B |
| AR Antero Resources Corporation | 36.44 | 58.53 | +38% | 86Prime | $11.2B |
| TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 354.57 | 144.83 | -145% | 61Fair | $24.5B |
| RRC Range Resources Corporation | 41.84 | 52.96 | +21% | 87Prime | $9.8B |
| SM SM Energy Company | 38.22 | 36.18 | -6% | 67Good | $9.1B |
| EQT EQT Corporation | 52.45 | 91.21 | +42% | 84Prime | $32.8B |
| CHRD Chord Energy Corporation | 148.33 | 229.98 | +36% | 81Prime | $8.1B |
| VIST Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | 69.94 | 110.81 | +37% | 85Prime | $7.3B |
| MTDR Matador Resources Company | 53.77 | 74.73 | +28% | 82Prime | $6.7B |
| LB LandBridge Company LLC | 81.25 | 87.85 | +8% | 74Good | $6.3B |
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about APA
Is APA undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 47.23 the stock is 55% below the average fair value of 104.73 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of APA and what does it mean?
APA scores 87 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for APA?
104.73 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does APA Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does APA have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 728 listed contracts with 201,172 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 47% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.