Stock fact sheet · data as of
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Footwear & Accessories · United States · High Growth
Is DECK undervalued?
At 86.58 (close of 16 Oct 2026), DECK trades 60% below the GLS average fair value of 217.72. That average comes from 8 models run on the latest filings, and 6 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Deckers Outdoor Corporation the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between Graham Number (52.43) and GLS Growth (449.35). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files DECK under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for DECK
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 160.94 | +86% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 52.43 | -39% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 331.19 | +283% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 138.17 | +60% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 449.35 | +419% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 208.02 | +140% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 320.13 | +270% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 81.55 | -6% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 12.21 | -86% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 116.80 | +35% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Deckers Outdoor Corporation scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 9.8/10 puts DECK among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 35.6%, ROE 41.0%, ROA 27.8% - with debt at 0.15 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 9.5%.
Deckers Outdoor Corporation pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Hoka Brand 69%, UGG Wholesale 27%, Other Wholesale 4% (quarter Q1 FY2027).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 3/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 25 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 9.8 / 10 | ROE | 41.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.15 | ROA | 27.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 9.5% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 3 / 10 |
Wheel Score 95: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 95, Deckers Outdoor Corporation sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 16/20, Moat 15/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 56% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 67,918 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 3.1M shares a day on a market cap of $11.8B, with a beta of 1.12; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 60% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 15 / 15 | moat 9.8/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 56% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 3.1M shares/day, $11.8B cap, beta 1.12 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Deckers Outdoor Corporation reports earnings on 22 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
The 12 companies below are the closest to Deckers Outdoor Corporation by market cap within the Apparel - Footwear & Accessories industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONON On Holding AG | 35.19 | 42.50 | +17% | 80Prime | $11.6B |
| BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc | 35.89 | 47.44 | +24% | 89Prime | $6.4B |
| CROX Crocs, Inc. | 124.77 | 171.39 | +27% | 81Prime | $6.0B |
| SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd. | 44.74 | 35.40 | -26% | 57Fair | $3.3B |
| NKE NIKE, Inc. | 37.14 | 39.84 | +7% | 73Good | $55.2B |
| CPRI Capri Holdings Limited | 15.85 | 17.49 | +9% | 75Good | $1.8B |
| WWW Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 18.83 | 33.55 | +44% | 80Prime | $1.5B |
| REF Reformation Inc. (California) | 13.56 | 0.3499 | -3775% | 34Weak | $801M |
| WEYS Weyco Group, Inc. | 52.46 | 60.67 | +14% | 39No options | $501M |
| FOSL Fossil Group, Inc. | 6.88 | - | - | 43Weak | $407M |
| RCKY Rocky Brands, Inc. | 45.12 | 36.04 | -25% | 27No options | $338M |
| DBI Designer Brands Inc. | 6.42 | 14.85 | +57% | 74Good | $328M |
⚖ Compare DECK with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about DECK
Is DECK undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 86.58 the stock is 60% below the average fair value of 217.72 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of DECK and what does it mean?
DECK scores 95 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for DECK?
217.72 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Deckers Outdoor Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 22 Oct 2026 (after the close), 6 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does DECK have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 936 listed contracts with 67,918 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 56% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.