Stock fact sheet · data as of
NIKE, Inc. (NKE): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Footwear & Accessories · United States · High Yield Income
Is NKE undervalued?
NIKE, Inc. (NKE) closed at 37.14 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 39.84 (6.8% below fair value). 4 of the 9 models that produced a number sit above the price, 5 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 6.10 while Graham Growth gives 115.21. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files NKE under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for NKE
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 48.76 | +31% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 21.94 | -41% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 115.21 | +210% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 50.05 | +35% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 6.10 | -84% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 41.98 | +13% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 27.19 | -27% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 24.13 | -35% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 23.16 | -38% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.7123 | -98% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 36.80 | -1% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - NKE passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.7 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.0%, ROE 20.9%, ROA 8.1% - with debt at 0.74 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.8%.
The dividend yield is high at 4.42% (payout ratio 78%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Footwear 64%, Apparel 36%, Product and Service, Other 0% (quarter Q1 FY2027).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 7/10 and Congressional trading 3/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.7 / 10 | ROE | 20.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.74 | ROA | 8.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.8% | Payout ratio | 78% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 7 · 3 / 10 |
Wheel Score 73: Good
NKE scores 73 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 15/25), Piotroski health (11/20), the GLS moat (7/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20). Moat (7/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 38% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 2,329,587 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 46.4M shares a day on a market cap of $55.2B, with a beta of 1.10; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 15 / 25 | 7% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.7/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 38% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 46.4M shares/day, $55.2B cap, beta 1.10 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 17 Dec 2026, 62 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
The 12 companies below are the closest to NIKE, Inc. by market cap within the Apparel - Footwear & Accessories industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation | 86.58 | 217.72 | +60% | 95Prime | $11.8B |
| ONON On Holding AG | 35.19 | 42.50 | +17% | 80Prime | $11.6B |
| BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc | 35.89 | 47.44 | +24% | 89Prime | $6.4B |
| CROX Crocs, Inc. | 124.77 | 171.39 | +27% | 81Prime | $6.0B |
| SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd. | 44.74 | 35.40 | -26% | 57Fair | $3.3B |
| CPRI Capri Holdings Limited | 15.85 | 17.49 | +9% | 75Good | $1.8B |
| WWW Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 18.83 | 33.55 | +44% | 80Prime | $1.5B |
| REF Reformation Inc. (California) | 13.56 | 0.3499 | -3775% | 34Weak | $801M |
| WEYS Weyco Group, Inc. | 52.46 | 60.67 | +14% | 39No options | $501M |
| FOSL Fossil Group, Inc. | 6.88 | - | - | 43Weak | $407M |
| RCKY Rocky Brands, Inc. | 45.12 | 36.04 | -25% | 27No options | $338M |
| DBI Designer Brands Inc. | 6.42 | 14.85 | +57% | 74Good | $328M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NKE
Is NKE undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 37.14 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 39.84 (6.8% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of NKE and what does it mean?
NKE scores 73 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NKE?
39.84 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does NIKE, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 17 Dec 2026, 62 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NKE have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 2,329,587 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 38% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.