Stock fact sheet · data as of
Mercer International Inc. (MERC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Paper, Lumber & Forest Products · Canada · Speculative / Distressed
Is MERC undervalued?
At 0.2004 (close of 16 Oct 2026), MERC has no GLS fair value: every one of the nine models needs a positive input (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -7.73, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch), so the margin of safety is blank and the Wheel Score cannot be computed. Our screens leave the stock out at the first rule. What can be said from the nightly row is below.
The nightly engine files MERC under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for MERC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -16.53 | -8347% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 1.13 | +464% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Mercer International Inc. scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 0.8/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -29.4%, ROE -731.5%, ROA -24.4% - with debt at 23.89 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 23.89 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Mercer International Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Pulp 66%, Lumber 12%, Pallets 7% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | -29.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 0.8 / 10 | ROE | -731.5% |
| Debt / equity | 23.89 | ROA | -24.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -1148.0% | Payout ratio | -1% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 41: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 41 Mercer International Inc. sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 13/25, Health 9/20, Moat 1/15, Premium 5/20, Stability 13/20 - show where: Moat (1/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 329%, far above the range the wheel strategy is built for. The premium looks generous; the Wheel Score gives it only 5 of 20 Premium points because moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is 36,414 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.5M shares a day on a market cap of $13M, with a beta of 0.48 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 13 / 25 | 0% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 1 / 15 | moat 0.8/10 | |
| Premium | 5 / 20 | implied volatility 329% | |
| Stability | 13 / 20 | 1.5M shares/day, $13M cap, beta 0.48 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Mercer International Inc. reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
The 12 companies below are the closest to Mercer International Inc. by market cap within the Paper, Lumber & Forest Products industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCTC Jewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd. | 2.92 | 6.51 | +55% | 39No options | $10M |
| NWGL CL Workshop Group Limited | 0.2210 | 0.7237 | +69% | 39No options | $4M |
| ITP IT Tech Packaging, Inc. | 0.1460 | 5.82 | +97% | 45Weak | $2M |
| KEWL Keweenaw Land Association, Limited | 75.00 | 0.7775 | -9546% | 24No options | $84M |
| HMTC Homasote Company | 5.66 | 71.99 | +92% | 39No options | $2M |
| CLW Clearwater Paper Corporation | 19.30 | 52.96 | +64% | 45Weak | $311M |
| SLVM Sylvamo Corp | 32.11 | 71.31 | +55% | 74Good | $1.3B |
| BCC Boise Cascade Company | 75.48 | 74.85 | -1% | 64Fair | $2.6B |
| UFPI UFP Industries, Inc. | 75.75 | 85.13 | +11% | 71Good | $4.2B |
| LPX Louisiana-Pacific Corporation | 69.39 | 21.35 | -225% | 51Fair | $4.9B |
| WFG West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. | 63.92 | 37.59 | -70% | 41Weak | $4.9B |
| SUZ Suzano S.A. | 8.56 | 47.28 | +82% | 82Prime | $10.6B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MERC
Is MERC undervalued right now?
The GLS models could not value MERC (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -7.73, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch), so there is no fair value or margin of safety to compare the price of 0.2004 against.
What is the Wheel Score of MERC and what does it mean?
MERC scores 41 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MERC?
None of the nine GLS models produced a positive value for MERC (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -7.73, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch), so there is no GLS fair value tonight.
When does Mercer International Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MERC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 60 listed contracts with 36,414 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 329% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.