Stock fact sheet · data as of
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · United States · Defensive
Is MGY undervalued?
MGY closed at 24.52 on 16 Oct 2026, 22% below the GLS average fair value of 31.57 from 9 models (6 of them above the price). That is a moderate margin of safety: the stock passes the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan, and the Wheel Score gives it 22 of the 25 Value points.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (6.32) and 10 Cap (84.82). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files MGY under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for MGY
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 40.21 | +64% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 24.57 | +0% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 31.54 | +29% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 6.32 | -74% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 6.75 | -72% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 84.82 | +246% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 54.59 | +123% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 9.71 | -60% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 25.63 | +5% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -1.95 | -108% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 33.60 | +37% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 3.1/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 13.8%, ROE 16.8%, ROA 11.2% - with debt at 0.22 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 9.0%.
The dividend yield is 2.69% at a payout ratio of 27%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Oil and Condensate 90%, Natural Gas 10% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.1 / 10 | ROE | 16.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.22 | ROA | 11.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 9.0% | Payout ratio | 27% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 81: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 81, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 22/25, Health 16/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 19/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 42% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 22,568 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.2M shares a day on a market cap of $5.8B, with a beta of 0.70 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 22 / 25 | 22% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 42% | |
| Stability | 19 / 20 | 2.2M shares/day, $5.8B cap, beta 0.70 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUR Murphy Oil Corporation | 39.85 | 34.86 | -14% | 64Fair | $5.7B |
| LB LandBridge Company LLC | 81.25 | 87.85 | +8% | 74Good | $6.3B |
| CNX CNX Resources Corporation | 34.62 | 140.81 | +75% | 82Prime | $5.1B |
| MTDR Matador Resources Company | 53.77 | 74.73 | +28% | 82Prime | $6.7B |
| CRC California Resources Corp | 53.15 | 86.39 | +38% | 45Weak | $4.7B |
| VIST Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | 69.94 | 110.81 | +37% | 85Prime | $7.3B |
| CHRD Chord Energy Corporation | 148.33 | 229.98 | +36% | 81Prime | $8.1B |
| CRGY Crescent Energy Company | 12.51 | 13.98 | +11% | 74Good | $4.1B |
| CRK Comstock Resources, Inc. | 13.50 | 39.00 | +65% | 79Good | $4.0B |
| SM SM Energy Company | 38.22 | 36.18 | -6% | 67Good | $9.1B |
| BTE Baytex Energy Corp. | 5.16 | 7.22 | +29% | 45Weak | $3.6B |
| RRC Range Resources Corporation | 41.84 | 52.96 | +21% | 87Prime | $9.8B |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MGY
Is MGY undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 24.52 the stock trades 22% below the average fair value of 31.57 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of MGY and what does it mean?
MGY scores 81 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MGY?
31.57 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MGY have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 98 listed contracts with 22,568 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 42% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.