Antero Resources Corporation (AR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is AR undervalued?

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) closed at 36.44 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 58.53, which puts the price 38% below it. 6 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.

There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (10.24) and 10 Cap (123.13). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.

The nightly engine files AR under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.

Nine valuation models for AR

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Antero Resources Corporation scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 1.9/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.

Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.0%, ROE 8.4%, ROA 4.4% - with debt at 0.68 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 12.6%.

Antero Resources Corporation pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Natural Gas, Production 50%, Natural Gas Liquids Sales 42%, Oil and Condensate 4% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 10 Oct 2026.

Wheel Score 86: Prime

With a Wheel Score of 86, Antero Resources Corporation sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 18/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.

Implied volatility is 40% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 84,217 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 2.2M shares a day on a market cap of $11.2B, with a beta of 0.35 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Antero Resources Corporation reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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