Stock fact sheet · data as of
Antero Resources Corporation (AR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol AR · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · United States · Blend
Is AR undervalued?
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) closed at 37.43 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 57.47, which puts the price 35% below it. 6 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (13.09) and 10 Cap (127.15). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for AR, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 69, growth score 49, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for AR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 52.10 | +39% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 53.18 | +42% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 68.48 | +83% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 16.01 | -57% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 13.09 | -65% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 127.15 | +240% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 80.04 | +114% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 49.69 | +33% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -18.70 | -150% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 50.00 | +34% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Antero Resources Corporation scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 3.4/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.0%, ROE 8.4%, ROA 4.4% - with debt at 0.68 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 11.2%.
Antero Resources Corporation pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Natural Gas, Production 51%, Natural Gas Liquids Sales 42%, Oil and Condensate 3% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 10 Oct 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.4 / 10 | ROE | 8.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.68 | ROA | 4.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 11.2% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 82: Good
With a Wheel Score of 82 - the Good band - Antero Resources Corporation passes all 9 Wheel Trade Filters. How it ranks: value strong, premium strong, moat weak, health strong, red flags weak, option trading strong, stability good. Red Flags (weak) is the part keeping it out of the Prime band.
Implied volatility is 39% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 68,146 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 5.2M shares a day on a market cap of $11.5B, with a beta of 0.35 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that good.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 35% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 39% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 3.4/10 | |
| Health | Strong | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 60/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 44,786 contracts a day, 68,146 open interest | |
| Stability | Good | beta 0.35, $11.5B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for AR in the nightly calendar.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Antero Resources Corporation by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRC Range Resources Corporation | 52.10 | 47.51 | -10% | 44Weak | $12.2B |
| APA APA Corporation | 44.49 | 105.84 | +58% | 92Prime | $15.6B |
| OVV Ovintiv Inc. | 62.70 | 89.37 | +30% | 83Good | $17.3B |
| SM SM Energy Company | 31.06 | 36.65 | +15% | 78Good | $7.4B |
| CHRD Chord Energy Corporation | 132.33 | 276.90 | +52% | 82Good | $7.2B |
| PR Permian Resources Corporation | 22.43 | 26.28 | +15% | 46Weak | $18.8B |
| TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 287.65 | 140.14 | -105% | 43Weak | $19.8B |
| EXE Expand Energy Corporation | 87.31 | 248.51 | +65% | 87Prime | $20.2B |
| VIST Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | 62.02 | 126.46 | +51% | 53Fair | $6.5B |
| MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | 23.37 | 29.36 | +20% | 49Weak | $6.3B |
| MTDR Matador Resources Company | 50.37 | 71.83 | +30% | 54Fair | $6.2B |
| LB LandBridge Company LLC | 69.26 | 105.34 | +34% | 44Weak | $5.3B |
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AR
Is AR undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 37.43 the stock is 35% below the average fair value of 57.47 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of AR and what does it mean?
AR scores 82 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for AR?
57.47 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Antero Resources Corporation report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for AR in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does AR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 496 listed contracts with 68,146 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 39% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.