Stock fact sheet · data as of
SM Energy Company (SM): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · United States · Defensive
Is SM undervalued?
SM Energy Company (SM) closed at 38.22 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 36.18 (5.7% above fair value). 4 of the 8 models that produced a number sit above the price, 4 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
The 8 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 6.66 while 10 Cap gives 92.73. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files SM under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for SM
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 18.65 | -51% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 55.48 | +45% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 47.80 | +25% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 6.66 | -83% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 8.95 | -77% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 92.73 | +143% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 12.65 | -67% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 46.49 | +22% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -15.27 | -140% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 39.08 | +2% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - SM passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.6 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 8.5%, ROE 13.5%, ROA 7.0% - with debt at 0.59 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 2.25% at a payout ratio of 18%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from E&P 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 8.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.6 / 10 | ROE | 13.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.59 | ROA | 7.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -0.4% | Payout ratio | 18% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 67: Good
SM scores 67 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 10/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (4/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20). Moat (4/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 53% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 64,348 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.1M shares a day on a market cap of $9.1B, with a beta of 0.75 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 10 / 25 | -6% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 4 / 15 | moat 2.6/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 53% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.1M shares/day, $9.1B cap, beta 0.75 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to SM Energy Company by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRC Range Resources Corporation | 41.84 | 52.96 | +21% | 87Prime | $9.8B |
| CHRD Chord Energy Corporation | 148.33 | 229.98 | +36% | 81Prime | $8.1B |
| AR Antero Resources Corporation | 36.44 | 58.53 | +38% | 86Prime | $11.2B |
| VIST Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | 69.94 | 110.81 | +37% | 85Prime | $7.3B |
| MTDR Matador Resources Company | 53.77 | 74.73 | +28% | 82Prime | $6.7B |
| LB LandBridge Company LLC | 81.25 | 87.85 | +8% | 74Good | $6.3B |
| MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | 24.52 | 31.57 | +22% | 81Prime | $5.8B |
| MUR Murphy Oil Corporation | 39.85 | 34.86 | -14% | 64Fair | $5.7B |
| CNX CNX Resources Corporation | 34.62 | 140.81 | +75% | 82Prime | $5.1B |
| APA APA Corporation | 47.23 | 104.73 | +55% | 87Prime | $16.5B |
| CRC California Resources Corp | 53.15 | 86.39 | +38% | 45Weak | $4.7B |
| OVV Ovintiv Inc. | 66.13 | 77.05 | +14% | 80Prime | $18.3B |
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about SM
Is SM undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 38.22 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 36.18 (5.7% above fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of SM and what does it mean?
SM scores 67 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for SM?
36.18 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does SM Energy Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does SM have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 310 listed contracts with 64,348 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 53% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.