Stock fact sheet · data as of
Phillips 66 (PSX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol PSX · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · United States · Value
Is PSX undervalued?
PSX has a margin of safety of 53%: the stock closed at 259.63 on 5 Nov 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 548.05. 5 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our scans treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between DDM (73.72) and Graham Growth (1,668.15). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, PSX is clearly cheaper than it is fast-growing, so the nightly engine files it under Value (value score 62, growth score 14, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for PSX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 197.18 | -24% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 248.26 | -4% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 1,668.15 | +543% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 718.40 | +177% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 92.72 | -64% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 889.49 | +243% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 692.55 | +167% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 73.72 | -72% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 351.96 | +36% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -67.08 | -126% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 290.50 | +12% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Phillips 66 scores 9 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 4.1/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 8.5%, ROE 15.1%, ROA 6.0% - with debt at 0.79 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 14.2%.
The dividend yield is 1.93% at a payout ratio of 16%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Consolidation, Eliminations 70%, Crude Oil 17%, Natural Gas Liquids 13% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 9 / 9 | ROIC | 8.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.1 / 10 | ROE | 15.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.79 | ROA | 6.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 14.2% | Payout ratio | 16% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 61: Fair
A Wheel Score of 61 keeps Phillips 66 under 70, the mark only a stock that passes all 9 Wheel Trade Filters can reach: it fails filter 5, can repay its debt - 4.0 years to repay its debt (over 3). The parts: value strong, premium strong, moat fair, health strong, red flags strong, option trading strong, stability strong.
Implied volatility is 48% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 44,323 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 5.5M shares a day on a market cap of $101.3B, with a beta of 0.69 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that strong.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 4.0 years to repay its debt (over 3) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 53% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 48% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 4.1/10 | |
| Health | Strong | Piotroski 9/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 95/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 7,693 contracts a day, 44,323 open interest | |
| Stability | Strong | beta 0.69, $101.3B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Feb 2027, 90 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today. The shares go ex-dividend on 17 Nov 2026 (1.33 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
The 12 companies below are the closest to Phillips 66 by market cap within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO Valero Energy Corporation | 365.34 | 513.12 | +29% | 91Prime | $101.9B |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 392.68 | 654.26 | +40% | 60Fair | $110.3B |
| DINO HF Sinclair Corporation | 104.57 | 208.52 | +50% | 89Prime | $17.9B |
| PBF PBF Energy Inc. | 72.62 | 247.83 | +71% | 53Fair | $8.6B |
| UGP Ultrapar Participações S.A. | 5.60 | 11.33 | +51% | 47Weak | $6.0B |
| CVI CVR Energy, Inc. | 43.01 | 52.40 | +18% | 45Weak | $4.3B |
| DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. | 65.46 | 74.93 | +13% | 39Weak | $4.0B |
| IEP Icahn Enterprises L.P. | 5.34 | 13.36 | +60% | 43Weak | $3.8B |
| PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | 69.66 | 180.52 | +61% | 79Good | $3.5B |
| WKC World Kinect Corporation | 38.00 | 12.65 | -200% | 31Weak | $1.9B |
| CAPL CrossAmerica Partners LP | 20.27 | 27.61 | +27% | 46Weak | $773M |
| APC ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A Common Stock | 13.74 | 7.11 | -93% | 19No options | $654M |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about PSX
Is PSX undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 259.63 the stock is 53% below the average fair value of 548.05 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of PSX and what does it mean?
PSX scores 61 out of 100 (Fair) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 5. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for PSX?
548.05 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Phillips 66 report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Feb 2027, 90 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does PSX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 728 listed contracts with 44,323 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 48% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.