Stock fact sheet · data as of
Phillips 66 (PSX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · United States · Defensive
Is PSX undervalued?
PSX closed at 297.29 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 319.19 - 6.9% below fair value, which our screens read as "fairly priced". 4 of 9 models are above the current price. There is no discount to lean on here, so the margin of safety is not the reason to look at the stock.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (51.78) and Graham Growth (1,006.96). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files PSX under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for PSX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 181.48 | -39% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 176.85 | -41% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 1,006.96 | +239% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 439.74 | +48% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 51.78 | -83% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 440.00 | +48% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 305.63 | +3% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 73.72 | -75% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 196.56 | -34% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -65.27 | -122% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 286.90 | -3% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Phillips 66 scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 2.9/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 8.5%, ROE 15.1%, ROA 6.0% - with debt at 0.79 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.4%.
The dividend yield is 1.69% at a payout ratio of 28%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Refined petroleum products and renewabl… 73%, Crude oil resales 16%, Natural gas liquids and natural gas 9% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 8.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.9 / 10 | ROE | 15.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.79 | ROA | 6.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.4% | Payout ratio | 28% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 77: Good
With a Wheel Score of 77 - the Good band - Phillips 66 clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 15/25, Health 18/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20; Moat (4/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 49% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 68,339 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.8M shares a day on a market cap of $119.2B, with a beta of 0.70 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 15 / 25 | 7% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 4 / 15 | moat 2.9/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 49% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.8M shares/day, $119.2B cap, beta 0.70 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Phillips 66 reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
The 12 companies below are the closest to Phillips 66 by market cap within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO Valero Energy Corporation | 459.78 | 326.36 | -41% | 62Fair | $132.4B |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 476.92 | 404.01 | -18% | 67Good | $133.9B |
| DINO HF Sinclair Corporation | 124.70 | 134.04 | +7% | 76Good | $22.2B |
| PBF PBF Energy Inc. | 89.51 | 115.93 | +23% | 78Good | $10.6B |
| SUN Sunoco LP | 75.53 | 138.70 | +46% | 73Good | $10.3B |
| APC ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A Common Stock | 16.06 | 10.77 | -49% | 32No options | $9.6B |
| UGP Ultrapar Participações S.A. | 7.84 | 30.42 | +74% | 89Prime | $8.6B |
| CVI CVR Energy, Inc. | 61.68 | 20.30 | -204% | 53Fair | $6.2B |
| IEP Icahn Enterprises L.P. | 6.64 | 18.90 | +65% | 45Weak | $4.7B |
| DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. | 76.88 | 75.16 | -2% | 63Fair | $4.7B |
| PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | 88.67 | 180.79 | +51% | 83Prime | $4.4B |
| WKC World Kinect Corporation | 36.72 | 12.65 | -190% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about PSX
Is PSX undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 297.29 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 319.19 (6.9% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of PSX and what does it mean?
PSX scores 77 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for PSX?
319.19 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Phillips 66 report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does PSX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 68,339 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 49% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.