Stock fact sheet · data as of
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol VLO · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · United States · Value
Is VLO undervalued?
VLO closed at 365.34 on 5 Nov 2026, 29% below the GLS average fair value of 513.12 from 9 models (4 of them above the price). That is a moderate margin of safety: the stock passes the "below fair value" Wheel Trade Filter, with room for a bigger discount on the Value part.
There is a wide gap between DDM (69.60) and 10 Cap (1,339.20). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, VLO is clearly cheaper than it is fast-growing, so the nightly engine files it under Value (value score 54, growth score 15, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for VLO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 326.48 | -11% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 316.72 | -13% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 732.79 | +101% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 181.68 | -50% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 132.95 | -64% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 1,339.20 | +267% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 1,013.96 | +178% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 69.60 | -81% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 504.68 | +38% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -29.31 | -108% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 451.11 | +23% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Valero Energy Corporation scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 4.9/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.6%, ROE 9.9%, ROA 4.0% - with debt at 0.49 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 14.8%.
The dividend yield is 1.29% with a payout ratio of 11% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Refining 92%, Renewable Diesel 5%, Ethanol 3% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 6.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.9 / 10 | ROE | 9.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.49 | ROA | 4.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 14.8% | Payout ratio | 11% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 91: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 91, Valero Energy Corporation sits in the Prime band. It passes every Wheel Trade Filter - busy options, a real business, below fair value, healthy accounts, debt it can repay, no serious red flags, a premium worth selling, enough size and price - and ranks near the top on the parts: value strong, premium strong, moat fair, health strong, red flags strong, option trading strong, stability strong. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 55% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 113,997 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 5.7M shares a day on a market cap of $101.9B, with a beta of 0.58 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that strong.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 29% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 55% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 4.9/10 | |
| Health | Strong | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 95/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 44,777 contracts a day, 113,997 open interest | |
| Stability | Strong | beta 0.58, $101.9B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 28 Jan 2027, 84 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today. The shares go ex-dividend on 24 Nov 2026 (1.20 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Analysts downgraded VLO 1 time in the last 30 days with no upgrades; the latest action was a reiterated rating by Citigroup on 23 Oct 2026.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
The 12 companies below are the closest to Valero Energy Corporation by market cap within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSX Phillips 66 | 259.63 | 548.05 | +53% | 61Fair | $101.3B |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 392.68 | 654.26 | +40% | 60Fair | $110.3B |
| DINO HF Sinclair Corporation | 104.57 | 208.52 | +50% | 89Prime | $17.9B |
| PBF PBF Energy Inc. | 72.62 | 247.83 | +71% | 53Fair | $8.6B |
| UGP Ultrapar Participações S.A. | 5.60 | 11.33 | +51% | 47Weak | $6.0B |
| CVI CVR Energy, Inc. | 43.01 | 52.40 | +18% | 45Weak | $4.3B |
| DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. | 65.46 | 74.93 | +13% | 39Weak | $4.0B |
| IEP Icahn Enterprises L.P. | 5.34 | 13.36 | +60% | 43Weak | $3.8B |
| PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | 69.66 | 180.52 | +61% | 79Good | $3.5B |
| WKC World Kinect Corporation | 38.00 | 12.65 | -200% | 31Weak | $1.9B |
| CAPL CrossAmerica Partners LP | 20.27 | 27.61 | +27% | 46Weak | $773M |
| APC ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A Common Stock | 13.74 | 7.11 | -93% | 19No options | $654M |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about VLO
Is VLO undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 365.34 the stock trades 29% below the average fair value of 513.12 (data as of 5 Nov 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of VLO and what does it mean?
VLO scores 91 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for VLO?
513.12 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Valero Energy Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Jan 2027, 84 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does VLO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,018 listed contracts with 113,997 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 55% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.