Stock fact sheet · data as of
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol MPC · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · United States · Value
Is MPC undervalued?
At 392.68 (close of 5 Nov 2026), MPC trades 40% below the GLS average fair value of 654.26. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 5 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Marathon Petroleum Corporation the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 58.86 while 10 Cap gives 1,865.39. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, MPC is clearly cheaper than it is fast-growing, so the nightly engine files it under Value (value score 56, growth score 16, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for MPC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 427.10 | +9% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 313.29 | -20% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 846.05 | +115% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 209.76 | -47% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 153.50 | -61% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 1,865.39 | +375% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 1,431.72 | +265% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 58.86 | -85% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 582.68 | +48% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -130.67 | -133% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 445.20 | +13% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health MPC scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.1 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.8%, ROE 23.4%, ROA 4.7% - with debt at 1.98 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 18.9%.
The dividend yield is 1.02% with a payout ratio of 8% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Refining And Marketing 95%, Midstream 3%, Renewable Diesel 2% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 7.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.1 / 10 | ROE | 23.4% |
| Debt / equity | 1.98 | ROA | 4.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 18.9% | Payout ratio | 8% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 60: Fair
MPC scores 60 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-69) because it fails filter 5, can repay its debt - 3.6 years to repay its debt (over 3). A stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to reach 70. Otherwise the parts read: value strong, premium strong, moat fair, health strong, red flags strong, option trading strong, stability strong.
Implied volatility is 54% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 54,592 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 4.0M shares a day on a market cap of $110.3B, with a beta of 0.54 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that strong.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 3.6 years to repay its debt (over 3) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 40% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 54% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 4.1/10 | |
| Health | Strong | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 95/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 11,441 contracts a day, 54,592 open interest | |
| Stability | Strong | beta 0.54, $110.3B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 2 Feb 2027, 89 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today. The shares go ex-dividend on 18 Nov 2026 (1.10 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
The 12 companies below are the closest to Marathon Petroleum Corporation by market cap within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO Valero Energy Corporation | 365.34 | 513.12 | +29% | 91Prime | $101.9B |
| PSX Phillips 66 | 259.63 | 548.05 | +53% | 61Fair | $101.3B |
| DINO HF Sinclair Corporation | 104.57 | 208.52 | +50% | 89Prime | $17.9B |
| PBF PBF Energy Inc. | 72.62 | 247.83 | +71% | 53Fair | $8.6B |
| UGP Ultrapar Participações S.A. | 5.60 | 11.33 | +51% | 47Weak | $6.0B |
| CVI CVR Energy, Inc. | 43.01 | 52.40 | +18% | 45Weak | $4.3B |
| DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. | 65.46 | 74.93 | +13% | 39Weak | $4.0B |
| IEP Icahn Enterprises L.P. | 5.34 | 13.36 | +60% | 43Weak | $3.8B |
| PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | 69.66 | 180.52 | +61% | 79Good | $3.5B |
| WKC World Kinect Corporation | 38.00 | 12.65 | -200% | 31Weak | $1.9B |
| CAPL CrossAmerica Partners LP | 20.27 | 27.61 | +27% | 46Weak | $773M |
| APC ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A Common Stock | 13.74 | 7.11 | -93% | 19No options | $654M |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MPC
Is MPC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 392.68 the stock is 40% below the average fair value of 654.26 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of MPC and what does it mean?
MPC scores 60 out of 100 (Fair) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 5. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for MPC?
654.26 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Marathon Petroleum Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 2 Feb 2027, 89 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MPC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 198 listed contracts with 54,592 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 54% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.