Stock fact sheet · data as of
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · United States · Value
Is MPC undervalued?
At 476.92 (close of 16 Oct 2026), MPC trades 18% over the GLS average fair value of 404.01. 2 of the 9 models land above the price and 7 below. A negative margin of safety costs Value points in the Wheel Score (5 of 25 here) - the models see no discount, which does not make the business a poor one, only the price a full one.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 58.86 while 10 Cap gives 1,113.89. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files MPC under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for MPC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 401.07 | -16% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 208.23 | -56% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 474.24 | -1% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 117.58 | -75% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 86.04 | -82% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 1,113.89 | +134% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 849.54 | +78% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 58.86 | -88% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 326.61 | -32% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -130.67 | -127% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 444.30 | -7% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health MPC scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.5 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.8%, ROE 23.4%, ROA 4.7% - with debt at 1.98 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 9.6%.
The dividend yield is 0.84% with a payout ratio of 14% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Refining And Marketing 95%, Midstream 3%, Renewable Diesel 2% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 7.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.5 / 10 | ROE | 23.4% |
| Debt / equity | 1.98 | ROA | 4.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 9.6% | Payout ratio | 14% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 67: Good
MPC scores 67 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 5/25), Piotroski health (18/20), the GLS moat (4/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20). Value (5/25) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 54% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 122,635 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.1M shares a day on a market cap of $133.9B, with a beta of 0.54 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 5 / 25 | -18% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 4 / 15 | moat 2.5/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 54% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.1M shares/day, $133.9B cap, beta 0.54 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
The 12 companies below are the closest to Marathon Petroleum Corporation by market cap within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO Valero Energy Corporation | 459.78 | 326.36 | -41% | 62Fair | $132.4B |
| PSX Phillips 66 | 297.29 | 319.19 | +7% | 77Good | $119.2B |
| DINO HF Sinclair Corporation | 124.70 | 134.04 | +7% | 76Good | $22.2B |
| PBF PBF Energy Inc. | 89.51 | 115.93 | +23% | 78Good | $10.6B |
| SUN Sunoco LP | 75.53 | 138.70 | +46% | 73Good | $10.3B |
| APC ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A Common Stock | 16.06 | 10.77 | -49% | 32No options | $9.6B |
| UGP Ultrapar Participações S.A. | 7.84 | 30.42 | +74% | 89Prime | $8.6B |
| CVI CVR Energy, Inc. | 61.68 | 20.30 | -204% | 53Fair | $6.2B |
| IEP Icahn Enterprises L.P. | 6.64 | 18.90 | +65% | 45Weak | $4.7B |
| DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. | 76.88 | 75.16 | -2% | 63Fair | $4.7B |
| PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | 88.67 | 180.79 | +51% | 83Prime | $4.4B |
| WKC World Kinect Corporation | 36.72 | 12.65 | -190% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MPC
Is MPC undervalued right now?
No: at 476.92 the stock trades 18% above the GLS average fair value of 404.01 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of MPC and what does it mean?
MPC scores 67 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MPC?
404.01 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Marathon Petroleum Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MPC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 122,635 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 54% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.